The US presidential election will be held on November 5, according to an analyst. Nate Silver’s Aggregate In national polls, Democrat Kamala Harris leads Republican Donald Trump by 48.8–45.0. In my previous article, Article on American politics As of Sunday, Harris was leading Trump 48.8 to 44.8.
Before he withdrew from the Democratic field on July 21, Joe Biden was polling at a national margin of 45.2 to 41.2. By the time of the election, Biden will be nearly 82, Trump 78, and Harris 60.
Last week, two events had the potential to change the polls. First, the Democratic National Convention was held from August 19 to 22. Second, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. withdrew from the presidential race and endorsed Trump on August 23. When he withdrew, Kennedy had only 4% of the vote in national polls.
The next event that could potentially change the race is the Debate of September 10 between Harris and Trump. The June 27 debate between Biden and Trump ultimately led to Biden’s withdrawal.
Pennsylvania a problem for Harris
The President of the United States is not elected by national popular vote, but by the Electoral College, in which each state receives a number of electoral votes equal to its number of seats in the federal House of Representatives (based on population) and senators (always two). Almost all states award their electoral votes on a winner-takes-all basis, and 270 electoral votes are required to win (out of a total of 538).
According to Silver’s model, Harris’ chances of winning the Electoral College have dropped from 53.2% last Sunday to 47.3%, with Trump now the favorite with a 52.4% chance. Harris’s chance of winning peaked on August 14, at 57%. This is the first time since August 3 that Trump has been the favorite.
The Electoral College is biased in Trump’s favor relative to the national popular vote. In Silver’s model, Harris must win the popular vote by at least two points to be the Electoral College favorite.
One of the main reasons for Harris’s downfall is Pennsylvania, which has 19 electoral votes, the most of any battleground state. If Harris or Trump wins Pennsylvania, that candidate has about a 92% chance of winning the Electoral College.
Money wrote that recent polls in Pennsylvania have been weak for Harris, although his model does not yet include Morning Consult Survey which gave Harris a four-point lead in Pennsylvania.
I has already written that, to maximize her chances of winning the Electoral College, Harris should have chosen Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro as her running mate rather than Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz. Democrats may regret that choice.
Another factor hurting Harris is the convention bounce model fit. Convention bounces typically peak a week after the convention and then fade over the next few weeks. I’ve written before that Harris would need to have a four- to five-point lead nationally in post-convention polls to maintain her probability of winning.
Harris’ national lead of 3.8 points is just below the lower limit where she would maintain her probability of winning. If her national lead remains unchanged over the next two weeks, her probability of winning will increase again. But the model expects Harris’ lead to shrink over the next two weeks.
Further analysis
It is possible that Kennedy’s withdrawal and support for Trump turned some of his voters into Trump voters. In most polls before Kennedy’s withdrawal, Harris benefited from her inclusion compared to a Harris-Trump head-to-head version.
Harris’ initial surge was likely driven by relief over Biden’s withdrawal. Biden now has a net approval rating of -12.9 in the FiveThirtyEight Aggregationan improvement from -17.1 when he stepped down on July 21. But his unpopularity still risks hurting Harris, who is campaigning on continuing Biden’s policies.
After a sharp rise in Harris’ net popularity during the first two weeks of her candidacy, her net popularity gains have stalled. FiveThirtyEight Tracking is -1.4, up from -16.0 on July 20, but a much smaller improvement from -3.9 on August 14.
I believe Harris’ honeymoon after replacing Biden is over, and it will now be harder for her to make progress in the polls.
Trump’s net approval rating has fallen back to -9.2 after gaining ground following the Republican convention in mid-July. Trump’s running mate, J.D. Vance, is at -9.8, while Walz is at +4.8.