He predicted a Trump victory in 2016. What are his predictions for 2020? | New York Times Opinion

Right now, polls indicate that Joe Biden has a healthy lead over President Trump. But we’ve been here before (from 2016) and the polls were frankly wrong. However, one man was not. Historian Allan Lichtman was the lone forecaster who predicted Mr Trump’s victory in 2016 – and also prophesied that the president would be impeached. It’s two for two. But Professor Lichtman’s case goes much further. In 1980, he developed a presidential prediction model that retrospectively accounts for 120 years of U.S. electoral history. Over the past four decades, his system has accurately determined presidential winners, from Ronald Reagan in 1984 to Mr. Trump in 2016. In the video column above, Professor Lichtman walks us through his system, which identifies 13 “keys” to win the White House. Each key is a binary statement: true or false. And if at least six keys are false, the party in the White House is on the verge of extinction. So, what do the keys predict for 2020 ?To find out, you’ll have to watch the video. Subscribe: http://bit.ly/U8Ys7n More New York Times videos: http://nytimes.com/video ——— – Whether reporting on conflicts abroad and political divisions at home, or covering the latest style trends and scientific developments, New York Times video journalists provide a revealing and unforgettable view of the world. This is all the news worth watching.

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