The “keys to the White House” are being handed out, predicting that President Biden currently holds a slight lead in the rankings. a hypothetical match for 2024 against former President Donald Trump.
Allan Lichtman, an election prognosticator who has correctly predicted almost every presidential election since 1984, developed a formula used to make predictions about an upcoming presidential election — and in many cases, it turns out to be accurate.
Lichtman’s “Keys to the White House” consists of 13 true or false questions that he says are a strong indication of who will be named the winner in the fall vote.
Each question is asked about the two dueling nominees; if “true”, they receive a “key” and if “false”, their competitor receives the point.
So far, Biden holds five of the “keys” while Trump was able to capture about three, Lichtman revealed to MarketWatch.
That leaves five keys still up for grabs, and enough room for the former president to take the lead before November.
According to American University, where Lichtman teaches the “keys” are: party mandate, competition, mandate, third party, short-term economics, long-term economics, policy change, social unrest, scandal, foreign/military failure , foreigner/military. success, charisma of the incumbent and charisma of the challenger.
Biden’s mandate grants it an automatic point, that of key number 3.
While Robert F. Kennedy Jr. qualified to appear on Utah’s presidential election ballot, Biden was granted another “key” for not appearing to have a significant challenge with a third party or an independent primary.
THE The Democrat also received “keys” for having “real per capita economic growth during the term equal to or greater than the average growth during the previous two terms”, as well as for implementing policy changes during his presidency.
Trump, however, got key number one, which is granted to whoever belongs to the political party that holds power. majority in the House of Representatives – which goes to the GOP.
Presenting Biden as lacking charisma, Lichtman gave Trump the 12th key, and perhaps another point if Biden fails to achieve “major success in foreign or military affairs.”
Lichtman correctly predicted that Trump would win the 2016 election and then Biden would win the 2020 presidential election against Trump.