Reliably Democratic Illinois is no one’s idea of a swing state.
But three heated House primaries in Lincoln’s homeland next week illustrate the broader vulnerabilities of the two major political parties heading into the general election: age, extremism and immigration. In today’s newsletter, I’m going to tell you about some fascinating primary races that will highlight some broader trends in American politics.
Let’s start with Illinois’ 12th Congressional District, in the southern part of the state. Mike Bost, a Republican and Marine Corps veteran, was first elected to the House in 2014. Democrats tried to shut him down “Mike in Melt” highlighting his angry outbursts in front of the state legislature and warning, “He would make Washington worse.” »
Well, those were simpler times. A decade later, Bost is what passes for an establishment Republican. He is chairman of the House Committee on Veterans Affairs and serves on the agriculture and transportation committees, from which he can direct funds and projects to the largely rural district that spans the lower third of the state.
His primary opponent, Darren Bailey, is proving that in the era of Donald J. Trump, there may be no limits to the Republican Party’s rightward drift. Bailey, as you may recall, was an ardent pro-Trump Republican whom Illinois Democratic Gov. JB Pritzker spent big money elevating in the 2022 Republican gubernatorial primary, thinking that he would be easy to beat – which he was. Pritzker won by almost 13 percentage points.
Bailey calls Bost “Amnesty Mike” an insufficient apostle of Trump’s “America First” agenda. But Bost has Trump’s support. And to make things even more interesting, Bailey was endorsed by Matt Gaetz, a high-profile Trump ally and firebrand, who had heated running-in with Bost. Enough to turn heads.
Don’t say “age”
Democrats have their own problems that are reflected in the elections held in their stronghold of Greater Chicago. Let’s start with age: Danny Davis has represented a part of Chicagoland stretching from Lake Michigan to the western suburbs for nearly 28 years, and at 82, he’s determined to stay in Washington.
Chicago Treasurer Melissa Conyears-Ervin and a young community organizer, Kina Collins, would like to send him to a well-deserved retirement Tuesday.
But for the Democratic establishment, “age” is not a word spoken out loud, not with President Biden in the White House. Davis is a year older than the president, and the Democratic elite, including Pritzker, have rallied behind him again. The governor cited Davis’ “unwavering commitment to serving the people of Illinois with integrity, compassion and dedication.”
In an interview with the Chicago Tribune, even Conyears-Ervin was careful not to question Davis’ age. “It’s the energy, it’s the vision, it’s the relevance,” she said.
Immigration Divisions
Next door in Illinois’ 4th Congressional District, two Mexican-American Democrats, Rep. Jesús “Chuy” García and Alderman Raymond Lopez of Chicago, are facing off in a primary that revolves around immigration and the influx of migrants – many of whom take the bus. or flown to Chicago by Republican governors.
No issue dominated Chicago politics last year like the influx of migrants who overflowing shelters in Chicago And its suburbs.
Lopez has pushed for the revocation of Chicago’s sanctuary city status and for much stricter border security, positions that would have once been unthinkable in his progressive city. García, sticking to the more traditional Democratic position, wants more work permits for migrants, decriminalization of undocumented immigrants and a path to citizenship for those who were brought to the country as children.
The division within the Mexican-American community matches divisions among Hispanic voters nationally, a division that Republicans hope to exploit, as my colleagues say. Jennifer Medina and Ruth Igielnik reported yesterday.
Ultimately, the powers of the mandate and the money mean that Bost, Davis and García have every chance of surviving, although there is no certainty. And whoever wins, it certainly won’t change control of the House, since they represent districts that are well out of reach of the opposition party.
But similar issues driving their primary fights will play out in swing House districts and swing states across the country. Republicans, from Trump on down, will focus on immigration, border security and their idea that Biden is simply too old for another term. Democrats, for their part, will portray the Republican Party as too extreme and authoritarian to be entrusted with the reins of governance.
In this sense, the Illinois primaries constitute a test. See you Tuesday for the results.
The candidate who almost emptied her bank account
These days, political news outlets have become extremely sensitive to the oddities of House campaigns, particularly resumes that seem off-kilter and out-of-the-ordinary campaign finance disclosures. So eyebrows were raised earlier this year when a political unknown, Krystle Kaul, took over as fundraising lead in the big Democratic primary to succeed Rep. Jennifer Wexton in the Virginia and Washington suburbs , D.C.
The race for the Democratic-leaning seat has 13 candidates, including former Virginia House Speaker Eileen Filler-Corn, state senator Jennifer Boysko and Army veteran turned Virginia delegate Dan Helmer . In early January, after fundraising deadlines for 2023 expired, Helmer thought he had won last year’s prize when he announced he had raised more than $600,000.
Then, two days later, Kaul, a defense and communications company billing itself as a “national security Democrat,” beat him to the punch with $604,000, $447,800 of which came from his own pocket in the form of a loan for his campaign. Her personal financial disclosures show she earned about $302,000 last year — well off but not wealthy by political standards. His total net worth is between $490,000 and $1 million, according to his financial information, which presents a range of values for a candidate’s assets.
Kaul speaks proudly of her Indian heritage, particularly the side of her family that is Kashmiri Hindu, and she has received financial support from South Asians, a significant voting bloc in Virginia’s 10th District. But she is not the only Native American in the running. Suhas Subramanyam, a much more politically influential state senator, is also in the Democratic group. But his fundraising total — $271,902 by the end of 2023 — was far less than Kaul’s.
In an interview, Kaul bristled at questions about her fundraising numbers, but acknowledged the unusual size of her loan to her campaign. It is, she says, a big gamble.
“To be very clear, I’m not a millionaire, so to invest this money, yes, you’re right, it’s a lot of money. That’s most of what I have,” she said, claiming it all came from her own bank account. (A loan from an undisclosed donor would violate campaign finance law.) “But that’s because I believe strongly in creating a safer America. »
