As the US presidential election campaign reaches its peak with just one month to go before the vote, Euronews examines how heightened tensions and simmering conflict in the Middle East are influencing American voters.
ADVERTISEMENTEarlier this week, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris’ lesser-known running mates faced off in a vice presidential debate in New York.
While Senator JD Vance (Republican of Ohio) and Governor Tim Walz (Democrat of Minnesota) faced a heavy dose of domestic questions, the opening topic of the evening was the ongoing fight between Israel and Iran-backed Hamas.
The question arose just hours after Iran launched a barrage of ballistic missiles targeting Israel, underscoring the importance of the current conflict in the Middle East and the impact the war could have on voters in November.
As the US elections draw closer, in a race where polls show Trump and Harris will be neck and neck, Iran’s growing direct involvement with Israel could make the Middle East conflict a top issue for voters Americans.
Although Benjamin Netanyahu would probably prefer a more united Republican White House led by Donald Trump, the Israeli Prime Minister nevertheless finds himself in a position of greater flexibility and autonomy than he has enjoyed for months.
Tehran’s bombing of Israel came in response to a series of blows by Israel on Iran’s allies, including the assassination of Hamas’s Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and the assault on Hezbollah in Lebanon.
The calculated risk taken by Iran could lead to further escalation by Israel, emboldened by recent successes in the war. While Joe Biden’s administration will seek to curb any escalation, Netanyahu and the Democratic-led White House know things are complicated by the election just a month away.
Americans support Israel
Most American voters support Israel in the ongoing conflict. According to an August survey by the Chicago Council on Foreign Affairs, 60% of Americans favor the United States supporting Israel militarily until Hamas releases all hostages, while half of Americans favor to such support until Hamas is completely dismantled.
Although Americans explicitly do not want to be directly involved in another conflict in the Middle East, more than 60 percent support the United States playing a positive role in resolving problems in the region. Among Jewish and Muslim Americans, these numbers are even higher.
Public support for Israel extends across partisan lines, although the details matter. Republican voters are regularly polled with more than 70% support for Israel, its arms assistance and its military actions.
Democratic support is more tenuous but remains above 40% in favor of aid, although many Democrats believe the United States is doing too much for Israel. Across all age groups, only among voters aged 18 to 29 does support for Israel fall below 55%. Among older Americans, the country’s most reliable voting population, more than 70% of voters support Israel.
The Palestinian Authority, for its part, is seeing its support for the United States diminish, according to Gallup. By March, US support for the Palestinian ruling body had fallen to just 18%, its lowest level in five years.
Although Israel enjoys strong support among a plurality of Americans, the Israeli prime minister remains more controversial.
According to Gallup, only 35% of Americans have a favorable opinion of Benjamin Netanyahu, and 45% have an unfavorable opinion. Support for Netanyahu is sharply divided along party lines, however, with 66% support among Republicans compared to just 12% support among Democrats.
Pressure to be pro-Israeli
While American public support for Israel undoubtedly plays a role in each campaign’s stance on the conflict, there is also the role of special interests and, in an election year, donor interests.
ADVERTISEMENTThe American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) is one of the most important lobbies and campaign contributors in Washington.
AIPAC has already spent more than $17 million on donations for the 2024 campaign, of which more than $15 million, or 86.9%, has gone to candidates and organizations of the Democratic Party. AIPAC has spent countless days over the past year increasing aid to Israel, exerting more influence in this election year.
Democrats also benefit from donations from countless private donors interested in supporting Israel, from Hollywood to New York.
There is also the influence of the Electoral College, which distributes 538 votes among the American states to choose the president. The Electoral College system transforms a series of “swing states” into the ultimate decision-makers for the U.S. presidency.
ADVERTISEMENTThe main battleground state is Pennsylvania, where more than 300,000 Jewish voters make up a larger-than-average percentage of the state’s voters. Nevada, another swing state, also has a higher-than-average percentage of Jewish voters.
In each of America’s seven key states, the margins are expected to be razor-thin, likely down to a few thousand votes. Neither campaign can afford to take a voting bloc for granted.
Harris and Democrats walk a tightrope
President Biden has repeatedly expressed his support for Israel, emphasizing the aid his administration has provided. The president, however, belongs to another era within his own party.
Since the war in Gaza erupted last fall following Hamas’ surprise attack, Democrats have found themselves torn between traditional support for Israel and a younger, strongly progressive sect of the party more sympathetic to the Palestinians, charging Israel for being responsible for the ongoing conflicts in the region. region.
ADVERTISEMENTThe divide among Democrats leaves Vice President Harris with a fine line to walk as she heads toward her instant candidacy.
Even though Harris has repeatedly expressed support for Israel and backed her boss’s strategy in the conflict, she has a history of making comments suggesting that her support is less steadfast than Biden’s, perhaps a nod to eye to the party base which is much more critical of Israel. Israel.
Last week, New York Democratic Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez said in an interview that she believed Harris was “receptive” to the Democratic base’s concerns about the conflict.
Ocasio-Cortez highlighted the myriad campus protests in support of Palestine, emphasizing the importance of the progressive and youth vote for Democrats.
ADVERTISEMENTHarris’ statements on Israel remain closer to Biden’s than Ocasio-Cortez’s, with her campaign likely relying on the same data that shows greater public support for Israel, as well as pressure from donors and lobbyists .
Meanwhile, Harris failed to muster support from the Arab-American community. A September poll by the Council on American-Islamic Relations showed Harris trailing Trump among Arab American voters, a historic 2-to-1 advantage for Democrats.
In 2020, Biden won more than 60% of the Arab American vote, 16% better than Harris currently projects based on the poll.
With polls well within the margin of error, Harris cannot afford to lose the support of Jewish voters, giving Israel and Netanyahu more leeway to act without major public scrutiny from the from the White House’s preferred successor.
ADVERTISEMENTThe Republican position and a boost for Bibi
Despite the increasingly isolationist views of Republicans in recent years under the Trump MAGA banner, Israel has managed to maintain hawkish support from the right.
In response to Tuesday’s debate question regarding an Israeli preemptive strike on Iran, Trump’s running mate JD Vance affirmed his campaign’s belief that the United States should help Israel do whatever it considers it necessary to defend his country and his people.
Republicans have long been hawkish toward Iran. During the 2016 campaign, Trump regularly criticized Hillary Clinton and President Barack Obama for negotiating with Tehran and unlocking billions of dollars in frozen assets, a deal that Trump dismantled once he took office.
Trump, Vance and their surrogates have regularly pushed the message that, under the Trump administration, the current global chaos, from Ukraine to the Middle East, is not the norm.
ADVERTISEMENTThey blame the conflicts on “weak” leadership from Biden and Harris. Their wholehearted support for Israel coincided with a broader narrative about peace through strength — a message that could work on many Americans.
Iran’s actions and counteractions will only increase American sympathy for Israel. The latest attack gave Israel the freedom to act more aggressively while U.S. leaders walk on eggshells ahead of next month’s elections. This could end soon.
If Harris wins, Israel could find itself forced into a new set of conditions imposed by a less friendly White House.
If Trump takes back the White House in November, Netanyahu will find himself in a stronger position than he has seen in years. For now, Netanyahu can continue to operate from a position of strength and confidence.
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