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DONALD Trump The mother came from Tong (population 500), an isolated Scottish settlement that was once in Viking territory. His grandfather was from Kallstadt (1,200 inhabitants), a Bavarian village which gave birth to the Heinz family. Joe Biden’s ancestors came from Ireland and England. In America, everyone comes from somewhere else, even the Native Americans, even though they have been here much longer than anyone else. The country’s appeal is such that 160 million adults around the world say they would move there too, if only they had the chance. That’s several million more than most Americans are willing to admit.
This disconnect is at the heart of the problem that could cost President Biden the election. In 2016, Mr. Trump weathered “border chaos” all the way to the Republican nomination and then the presidency. At the time, he campaigned as if record numbers of migrants were crossing the border illegally. This wasn’t true then, but it is today.
There were nearly 250,000 attempts to cross the southern border in November alone. Most new arrivals will have applied for asylum and been released to America to wait years for their claims to be adjudicated. Since Mr. Biden became president, more than 3.1 million border crossers have been admitted. That’s more than the population of Chicago. At least 1.7 million more people arrived undetected or overstayed their visas. Republican governors have paid for migrants to go to places run by Democrats, pushing problems from the southern border north. Their experience helps explain why voters trust Republicans by a 30-point margin to handle border security. This is the party’s largest lead on any issue.
It’s not all Mr. Biden’s fault. When the U.S. job market is tight, people have more incentive to travel there illegally. This is why the numbers also increased under Mr. Trump, until Covid-19 came along and solved the problem for him. When travel became possible again in 2021, pent-up demand led to an influx of people across the southern border. More than half of cross-border commuters come from countries other than Mexico and northern part of Central America. Venezuelans make up the largest part of this group. But tens of thousands of people are now arriving in the Americas from Russia (43,000 by September 2023), India (42,000) and China (24,000), then attempting the crossing. It is often impossible to return them. China will not take back its nationals if their requests are rejected.
However, some of the blame lies squarely with Mr. Biden. Mr. Trump’s comments that Mexico is sending rapists across the border and his cruel separation of children from their parents as a deterrent, as well as his plan to build the wall, have radicalized some Democratic policymakers on immigration. They thought public opinion was on their side. Voters effectively revolted against Trumpism, and while he was in office, support for immigration reached a new high. When the new Democratic administration took power, its instinct was to do the opposite of what Trump had done. Work on the border wall has been halted. Democrats abandoned the Remain in Mexico policy, which required asylum seekers to stay south of the border until authorities decided on their request. As expected, illegal immigration has increased.
Since the 2022 midterm elections, Mr. Biden has quietly adopted some of Mr. Trump’s policies. He agreed to fill in the gaps in the wall. Asylum seekers who attempt to cross the border without being detected will, with a few exceptions, automatically have their applications rejected. They must apply online before showing up. Yet Americans are unaware of these efforts, in part because Mr. Biden is reluctant to draw attention to his triangulation, lest his own camp turn against him.
The president’s room to do one thing while saying another is running out. The House of Representatives linked a tough immigration bill to funding the war in Ukraine. The administration is unhappy about this situation because supporting Ukraine makes economic and strategic sense for America, regardless of the country’s immigration policies. It is a mistake. Instead, in a system in which both sides use whatever leverage they have, Mr. Biden should see this as an opportunity.
Some of the Republican demands on immigration are reasonable. Most visa-free migrants crossing the southern border aren’t crawling in the desert. They find a Border Patrol agent and apply for asylum. They must then complete what is called a “credible fear” interview. Republicans want to raise the threshold for what constitutes credible fear. This is a reasonable goal. Under Mr. Biden’s rules, fear of gang violence counts as a reason for admission. Compare this with Spain, which rejects this test even though it has a socialist prime minister.
Once that first test passes, immigrants are typically released while awaiting a court date years away because immigration courts are overloaded with cases. The average wait for a hearing is more than four years. Calls can add to the delay. Democrats would like to have money to hire more agents to process claims and more judges to speed up the backlog of cases. This is also reasonable.
There should be agreement here. Yet each side is suspicious of the other’s motives. Republicans say they won’t give more money to an administration they can’t trust to enforce immigration laws. Instead, they are trying to impeach the Secretary of Homeland Security. Democrats are looking at Republican demands, such as that families arriving in the country could be detained indefinitely, and concluding that the negotiations are doomed to failure and therefore effectively a weapon against Mr. Biden. There is a good chance that both parties will choose to campaign rather than make deals.
Don’t forget the multitudes
This should worry Mr. Biden. Our reporting from the Mexican side of the border suggests that if people believe Mr. Trump will win, many others will try to do so. cross to America before its inauguration. Border insecurity weakens support for legal immigration and strengthens restrictionist parties. Immigration could bring Mr. Trump back to the White House, where he could pull America out of the 1951 refugee convention, causing its collapse. Mr. Biden should take the Republicans’ bluff, roll up his sleeves and start fixing the border. It would be the right thing to do. It would also help his prospects. ■
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