How the Israel-Hamas War Reshaped West Asia’s Politics: Power Shifts, Leaders, and Global Impact

On the morning of October 7, 2023, the unthinkable happened. The Palestinian militant group Hamas launched an unprecedented cross-border assault on Israel, killing 1,200 people and taking 251 hostages.

The attack was a rude shock for Israel, which had prided itself on an intelligence network so advanced that it could intercept conversations in Gaza in real time. But on that day, everything failed. The famed Israeli defence establishment was caught off guard, its military response was delayed, and the sheer scale of the attack shattered the illusion of Israeli invincibility. Conspiracy theorists do suggest that Israel knew an attack was coming but did nothing to prevent it.

The militants bypassed one of the world’s most sophisticated border security systems, moving undetected through tunnels and launching a wave of strikes. Israel’s security doctrine collapsed in real time, exposing deep vulnerabilities in its defence system.

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Israel responded with overwhelming force, launching a 15-month-long war that devastated Gaza. By the time a ceasefire was reached, over 46,600 Palestinians were dead, millions displaced, and Gaza lay in ruins.

Ramifications of the war

The war, however, was not just about Israel and Hamas. Since the Second World War, no war has changed an entire region so profoundly in such a short time. The Soviet war in Afghanistan did culminate in the demise of communism, the fall of the Soviet Union, and the liberation of Eastern Europe and Central Asia, but that war lasted for a decade.

Experts believe that this war also forced Israel back into dependence on the US after years of trying to assert its strategic autonomy. At the same time, the war prolonged Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s tenure at a time when he was facing flak from the courts and a resurgent opposition owing to corruption charges.

While weakening Iranian influence in the region, it also changed political equations in Lebanon drastically, and now, as the dust settles, it will result in a churning within Palestinian leadership, possibly leading to the end of the tenure of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. The war also led to the silent death of the US-backed Abraham Accords—treaties aimed at Israel-Arab normalisation. Now, if at all this attempt is revived, it will not be at the cost of Palestine.

Cooking the iftar meal to break the day’s fast at the Bureij refugee camp in central Gaza Strip on March 5.
| Photo Credit:
EYAD BABA/AFP

Hamas, battered and bruised, has signalled a willingness to relinquish control of Gaza but only if a credible alternative leadership emerges. Marwan Barghouti, the most widely respected Palestinian leader, has emerged as the consensus choice, yet his path to leadership is being actively blocked by Mahmoud Abbas, in coordination with Netanyahu, Palestinian sources told Frontline. (Barghouti is a popular Fatah leader imprisoned by Israel since 2002.)

Impact on Israel

According to David Hearst, editor of Middle East Eye, a UK-based website, the Hamas attack was more than just a military operation. He said: “It was an existential blow. For the first time, the Israeli public felt vulnerable. The aura of Israeli supremacy had been punctured, perhaps permanently.”

Before the war, Israel had been pushing for strategic autonomy, seeking to act independently of the US. But as the war dragged on, it became clear that Israel could not sustain its military operations without full American support. The US rushed emergency weapons shipments, provided diplomatic cover at the UN, and deployed aircraft carriers to the region to deter Iran from escalating the conflict.

Noting the irony of the situation, Andrew Parasiliti, a former director of the RAND Center for Global Risk and Security, said: “For years, Netanyahu’s government had been trying to carve out a foreign policy independent of Washington. But this war forced Israel right back into the American orbit. Without US aid, Israel’s ability to continue its operations would have been severely constrained.” Experts said that at the end of the war, Israel, with the support of the US, has emerged militarily stronger but politically weaker. The international community’s patience has worn thin. Pressure for a political resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict was growing, but Israel’s leaders seemed more isolated than ever.

Beyond Israel, the war had a profound impact on the politics of Lebanon, which had been paralysed for years, with no President and an economy in free fall. Hezbollah had effectively run the country’s security apparatus, acting as a state within a state. But as Hezbollah suffered significant battlefield losses, its grip on Lebanon weakened.

Change of guard in Lebanon

The Lebanese army, backed by France and the US, began stepping in to fill the security void. This shift was formalised when Lebanon finally elected Joseph Aoun as President in January this year, ending years of political deadlock.

Rami Khouri, a Lebanese journalist and political analyst, called it “the most significant shift in Lebanon’s power dynamics in decades”. He added: “For the first time in a generation, Hezbollah is no longer the dominant force in Lebanese politics. The Lebanese state is finally regaining its sovereignty.”

With Hezbollah losing its grip, Lebanon is now rebuilding its institutions and attempting to restore order and revive its economy. The country’s long-standing dependence on Iran is decreasing, and European and Arab powers are returning with economic aid and investment promises.

A Palestinian family breaks the Ramadan fast in their destroyed house amid the rubble of buildings in Beit Lahia in northern Gaza Strip on March 4.
| Photo Credit:
BASHAR TALEB/AFP

Khouri believes the shift is not just political but deeply symbolic. He said: “For years, Lebanon was seen as a failed state, a playground for regional power struggles. Now, there is a chance—however fragile—to reassert Lebanon’s national identity.”

Advantage Türkiye

But the unexpected winner in the chaos that followed the Gaza war is Türkiye. The fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria has proved to be a geopolitical windfall for the country, which also succeeded in forcing Kurdish militant groups like the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK, to agree to end one of the longest armed movements in world history.

For years since 2011, it had tried and helped Syrian opposition groups to overthrow the Assad government. Both countries had tense relations over Syria supporting Kurdish militancy in east Türkiye, so much so that in 1998, Türkiye threatened to attack Syria for hosting Abdullah Öcalan, founder and chief commander of the PKK. After being forced to leave Syria, Öcalan was abducted by the Turkish National Intelligence Organization in Nairobi, Kenya, in February 1999, and has been imprisoned since then in İmralı island in Türkiye. The militant group had fought a bloody insurgency against the Turkish state for over 40 years.

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Israel’s pounding of Hamas and Hezbollah, Iran’s regional proxies, left them severely weakened. The loss of Hezbollah’s military grip meant that Assad, who had relied on the group’s fighters to maintain power in Syria, found himself isolated. With his forces stretched and no viable allies left, he fled into exile in Russia in late 2024, marking the end of his brutal rule.

With the Syrian regime gone, Türkiye expanded its military and political influence in northern Syria, eliminating much of the Kurdish presence it had long seen as a threat. But the biggest breakthrough for Türkiye was the historic agreement between the Turkish government and the PKK. Facing new geopolitical realities, Öcalan announced that the group was ready to lay down arms and negotiate peace.

Defne Arslan, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, an American think tank, said: “This is an extraordinary shift. For decades, Türkiye and the PKK have been locked in an endless cycle of violence. The Gaza war created the conditions for a peace process that seemed impossible before.” With this agreement, Türkiye secured its borders, ended one of its longest-running conflicts, and positioned itself as the dominant regional power.

New leadership need of the hour

Palestinians will have to look for leadership to control the territories of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. Hamas may still be thriving, but neither Israel nor the European powers and the US will allow it to retake control of any Palestinian territory. While Mahmoud Abbas could be a better bet for Tel Aviv, his popularity among Palestinians is at its lowest. Marwan Barghouti is the leading contender to replace him.

A senior Hamas official, speaking to Frontline on condition of anonymity since he is not authorised to speak to the media, accused Abbas of actively working to ensure the continued incarceration of Barghouti.

In this April 6, 2003, photograph, Marwan Barghouti waves as he enters a Tel Aviv court. A leader of the 2000 Palestinian uprising, he is serving five life terms after being convicted by an Israeli court.
| Photo Credit:
JEREMY FELDMAN/AP

He also revealed that when Hamas exchanged a list of Palestinian prisoners to be released by Israel, Barghouti was placed at the top. “His release was a priority for us, and there were internal discussions about his potential leadership role in the Palestinian Authority,” the official added.

He further alleged that Abbas personally intervened to prevent Barghouti’s release, urging Israeli authorities to maintain a tough stance. “Abbas even suggested that if Barghouti were to be freed, he should be deported and barred from returning to the West Bank,” the official claimed.

Barghouti’s wife, Fadwa Al Barghouti, also confirmed this to Frontline, pointing to the long-standing efforts to keep her husband imprisoned. Among Palestinians, Barghouti is seen as a unifying figure, a possible Palestinian Mandela. His release would almost certainly revitalise Palestinian political aspirations and could reset the political landscape of Palestine.

At the site of strikes that hit a building of the Iranian embassy in Damascus, Syria, on April 1, 2024. Syrian state media said Israel was behind the strikes.
| Photo Credit:
LOUAI BESHARA/AFP

Experts said that Hamas wants him released as it would not only bring prestige to the organisation but would play a crucial part in ensuring its political survival in post-war Palestine. They added that Barghouti has the potential to broker a deal whereby the Islamists become members of a national unity government in exchange for recognising the state of Israel.

Decisive change

But one thing is clear: the war has changed Palestinian politics forever. The 2011 Syrian war gave Russia an entry into West Asia for the first time after the dismantling of the Soviet Union; the 2023 Gaza war gave China a wide opening in the region. Analysts from the Atlantic Council noted that China’s response to the Gaza crisis highlights a shift from a “hedging” to a “wedging” strategy, which leverages its influence to reshape relationships in the region and challenge US dominance.

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The Israel-Hamas war was not just another conflict—it was a geopolitical earthquake. It shattered Israel’s invincibility, forcing it back into dependence on the US, toppled the Assad regime, reshaped Lebanon’s power structure, gave unexpected windfalls to Türkiye, and set the stage for new Palestinian leadership.

For now, Gaza’s future remains uncertain. As the world watches the post-war realignments, one thing is certain: West Asia will never be the same again.

Iftikhar Gilani is an Indian journalist based in Ankara.