But he has conducted a “straw poll” of voters in every election since 1980 to express his preference, and will still send his results to Congress. In most cases (Trump’s 2016 victory being an exception), Guam’s result matches that of the eventual national winner. Given that the territory is 15 hours ahead of the continental United States, its straw poll will be scrutinized as an early indicator of the final outcome.
Results are then reported for each county within states, as they are counted in the hours after polls close. Key precincts and counties to watch include Door County in Wisconsin and Northampton County in Pennsylvania, both of which have a history of supporting the eventual winner.
Television networks and the Associated Press play an important role and compete to declare winners, “calling” states as having voted for one candidate or the other when they believe they have enough results in voting districts. Then, when they are confident, the media networks will also end up choosing the big winner. But if they’re wrong, their reputation risks being huge – and if the contest is as close as the polls predict, it may be a while before anyone has the courage to announce it.
What are the issues that define the campaign?
Harris has made defending abortion rights the heart of her campaign. Since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade In 2022, states proposed their own measures to restore women’s right to choose, a policy that is popular nationally. She attacked Trump’s character, describing him as a fascist and saying the future of democracy is at stake.
For his part, Trump has focused on the economy, promising tax cuts and criticizing Biden’s record of overseeing a period of high inflation. The repression of immigration remains an explosive and central element of his political offer, and he legal controversy to get his message across.
Could the polls be wrong?
Of course. Polls are a media obsession and generate enormous media coverage, dominating the contest and shaping the entire debate. But the pollsters’ record in the recent US presidential elections is poor.
