CNN
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Election polls cannot predict who will win the presidential election. They are inherently imprecise. They have the potential for error.
That said, this year’s polls have revealed many significant insights about how voters view politics in 2024 — from Americans’ widespread pessimism about the political landscape to the deep divide in values among supporters of Donald Trump And Kamala Harris.
Typically, polls provide a snapshot of opinions, rather than a prediction of how people might act in the future – whether it be how they vote or any other decision they make. could take. That’s especially true in this election, where polls show no clear leader in the presidential race, either nationally or in the seven swing states likely to prove decisive in the outcome. And while most polls suggest a close race, a more decisive victory for either candidate remains entirely possible.
“Changes of a single point can have consequences on the outcome, but are beyond the ability of most polls to capture accurately,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University poll. written last week.
But throughout the year, polling data has helped frame the contours of the 2024 race, with several results falling well outside the margin of error. The election is taking place against a situation fundamentally dark backdrop: The share of voters who say that things are bad in the United States is higher than in any pre-election poll since 2008, and President Joe Biden’s approval rating remained constantly and significantly underwater. At the same time, unusually, the first days of the race were largely a referendum on Assetrather than the holder. This dynamic changed somewhat when Biden was replaced on the ticket by Harris, triggering an immediate change. rise of democratic motivation.
Although the results of thematic surveys can sometimes vary depending on the framing, some results have been found to be remarkably robust. Americans continue to be largely opposed to the Supreme Court’s decision overturning Roe v. Wade, with opposition consistently above 60 percent. in a CNN poll over the last two years. Other issues reflect deep political divisions: In CNN poll this fallTrump supporters were 46 percentage points more likely than Harris supporters to say that growing diversity poses a threat to American culture, which coincided with the Trump campaign’s increasing reliance on anti-migrant rhetoric.
Here are other poll results from this year’s elections:
Economic issues are more prominent among voters than in any presidential election since the Great Recession, a Gallup poll released in October found, with concerns about democracy also being very present this year.
Of course, thinking an issue is important doesn’t necessarily imply voting on that basis alone, but polling on major issues gives a sense of the concerns and campaign themes that resonate most with different parts of the political spectrum. electorate. The Gallup poll, notably, found a stark, non-overlapping partisan divide between the top five issues for Republican and Republican-leaning voters and for Democrats and Republican-leaning voters. Among Republican-aligned voters, the most important issues are the economy, immigration, terrorism and national security, crime and taxes; among Democratic-aligned voters, these are democracy in the United States, Supreme Court justices, abortion, health care and education.
How Trump and Harris supporters differ in their visions of America
Partisan divisions on issues run deeper than priorities.
A Pew Research Center report published this summer cataloged the differences between each candidate’s supporters “on issues that have divided Americans for decades, such as the role of guns in society, race and the legacy of slavery.” Harris supporters were more than 50 points more likely than Trump supporters to say that the legacy of slavery continues to have a significant impact on Black people in America today and that “opening up “America to people around the world is essential to who we are as a state.” nation.”
Trump supporters were more than 40 points more likely than Harris supporters to say that gun ownership increases safety and that the nation’s criminal justice system is not strict enough.
During much of the general election, a survey project called The Breakthroughasked Americans a simple question: what have they seen, heard or read about each candidate recently?
In the final weeks of the campaign, Harris’ media appearances and Trump rallies received a lot of attention. And while no issue has proven as dominant throughout the election as the 2020 pandemic, the words “liar” and “lies” have consistently appeared prominently in the public conversation around Trump.
Breakthrough results also helped chart the tumultuous final days of the Biden campaign, the battle to present Harris as a candidate and how Trump’s debate performance in September helped elevate fringe FAKE statements about migrants on the national stage.
Polling data is a unique and imperfect indicator of people’s opinions – which are not always morally, or even factually, correct. But U.S. polling, ultimately, is a way to engage with Americans from a wide range of demographics, life experiences, and opinions, on topics that go far beyond elections, or even politics. In a society that is deeply fragmented and where social media often reflects an unrepresentative sample of the loudest voices, it remains a valuable tool for understanding the country as a whole.
