Indonesia’s status as a middle power in global politics is bolstered by its strategic geographic location, economic potential, and diplomatic leadership, particularly within the Indo-Pacific region.
With over 17,000 islands situated along critical maritime trade routes, including the Malacca Strait, Indonesia manages one of the world’s most vital corridors for international commerce, with more than 40% of global trade passing through its waters annually. This geographic advantage, combined with its position as the largest economy in Southeast Asia and the third-largest democracy globally, enables Indonesia to serve as an important mediator among great powers, advocate for the Global South, and promote regional stability.
However, Indonesia’s influential role faces significant challenges. Domestic governance issues, such as widespread corruption, a weak rule of law, environmental vulnerabilities, and the complexities of navigating great power rivalries hinder its ability to fully realize its potential. Despite these obstacles, Indonesia’s commitment to multilateralism, economic diversification, and climate advocacy reinforces its importance as a stabilizing force in an increasingly polarized global landscape.
As a founding member of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), Indonesia has consistently promoted regional cooperation and peace. Its leadership in developing the ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific (AOIP) highlights its dedication to fostering inclusivity and collaboration in a region marked by escalating tensions between the United States and China. This non-aligned stance allows Indonesia to act as a mediator, facilitating trilateral dialogues and security summits aimed at de-escalating conflicts in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait.
Nonetheless, ASEAN’s unity is often tested by the differing interests of its member states, complicating Indonesia’s efforts to achieve consensus on critical security and economic issues. This challenge is further exacerbated by increasing geopolitical pressures from external powers seeking to align Indonesia with its strategic objectives, thereby undermining its neutrality.
Indonesia’s role as a middle power is strengthened by its significant contributions to global trade and its potential for sustained economic growth. As the 16th-largest economy in the world in 2023, with exports totalling $292 billion, Indonesia aims to secure a place among the top 10 economies by 2045. The country is actively expanding its trade partnerships, as demonstrated by the EU-Indonesia Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA), which focuses on sustainable palm oil production and cooperation in advanced technologies.
Additionally, Indonesia’s presidency of the G20 in 2022 laid the groundwork for its ongoing advocacy of equitable global economic policies, particularly in support of developing nations. However, the nation’s economic dependence on commodities such as coal and palm oil makes it vulnerable to fluctuations in global markets, thereby undermining its sustainability goals. For example, fossil fuels accounted for 38% of its exports in 2023, creating a conflict between economic priorities and environmental commitments. To ensure long-term economic stability and enhance its global credibility, Indonesia must address this reliance by investing more in renewable energy and technology-driven industries.
Indonesia’s environmental vulnerabilities also present both challenges and opportunities for its global leadership. As the largest archipelagic state in the world, it is particularly at risk from rising sea levels and climate-related disasters, which threaten millions of its citizens. This precarious situation gives Indonesia moral authority in climate negotiations. At COP29 in 2024, Indonesia led a coalition of archipelagic and small island nations advocating for increased climate financing and technology transfers for vulnerable countries.
Domestically, Indonesia has made progress in promoting sustainability through its Green Economy Initiative, which aims to transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy by 2050. However, this progress faces obstacles, including illegal mining, deforestation, and continued reliance on coal for energy. Aligning its domestic environmental policies with its international climate commitments poses a significant challenge that requires systemic reform and global support.
Strengthening governance and the rule of law is essential for Indonesia to enhance its middle-power capabilities. Corruption and inconsistent legal enforcement erode public trust and hinder economic development. High-profile corruption scandals have revealed systemic weaknesses that diminish Indonesia’s credibility on the international stage. Improving judicial independence and implementing robust anti-corruption measures are crucial for ensuring good governance and attracting foreign investment.
Despite these challenges, Indonesia’s capacity to mediate between global powers, advocate for multilateralism, and promote equitable governance establishes it as a vital stabilizing force. Its leadership in the G20, ASEAN, and other multilateral platforms demonstrates its ability to influence global discourse, particularly on issues such as climate change, economic equity, and regional security. However, to fully realize its potential, Indonesia must prioritize reforms that address internal vulnerabilities and elevate its diplomatic and economic influence. Key steps include enhancing the rule of law, investing in renewable energy, and diversifying trade partnerships beyond traditional markets. Strengthening economic ties with Africa and Latin America, for example, could reduce Indonesia’s dependence on volatile commodity markets while enhancing its global presence. Similarly, modernizing its naval and defence capabilities would secure maritime borders and reinforce its role as a guarantor of regional stability.
In conclusion, Indonesia’s geographic, economic, and diplomatic strengths position it as a key middle power capable of shaping global politics. Its ability to navigate great power rivalries, advocate for the Global South, and tackle pressing global challenges highlights its growing relevance in an increasingly multipolar world. However, this potential can only be realized by addressing internal challenges related to governance inefficiencies, environmental vulnerabilities, and overreliance on commodities. By implementing strategic reforms and leveraging its unique geographic and cultural position, Indonesia can solidify its role as a stabilizing force in global affairs. In a world facing rising geopolitical tensions and environmental crises, middle powers like Indonesia are essential for bridging divides, fostering cooperation, and championing equitable solutions to shared challenges.
The opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own.
References
- Acharya, Amitav. The Making of Southeast Asia: International Relations of a Region. Cornell University Press, 2013.
- Emmers, Ralf. Geopolitics and Maritime Territorial Disputes in East Asia. Routledge, 2009.
- Aspinall, Edward, and Marcus Mietzner. Problems of Democratisation in Indonesia: Elections, Institutions, and Society. ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, 2010.
