In a world where governments rarely see re-election, Ireland’s opposition politicians might have expected their call for “change” to resonate. But as the process of counting the votes cast on a wet and miserable November day began, it became clear the nation has largely chosen the status quo. Although the precise outcome of Ireland’s complex voting system may not be known for days, the next government is likely to look like the last one.
The two centrist parties that held power when the three-week election campaign was called – Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil – look positioned to head the next parliament as well. The main opposition party, Sinn Féin, which was the political wing of the Irish Republican Army, received 19 per cent of first preference votes – only slightly below the two large coalition parties.
As Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil get set to choose a coalition partner, stability is the order of the day. Speaking to RTÉ, Ireland’s national broadcaster, on Saturday, former Taoiseach and Fine Gael leader Leo Varadkar described the result as an outlier in global politics. “All around the world, governments are being booted out of office, incumbents are losing and this is an example of a government being re-elected,” Varadkar said.
However, while it may not be a new Ireland, its politics has changed. Alongside a number of small parties, most voters are divided between these three main parties. A year ago Sinn Féin looked poised to take power but, in the end, it has remained near the level it reached in 2020, when it finally ended a century of domination by the other two parties.
Although Fine Gael, headed by Taoiseach Simon Harris, and Fianna Fáil, led by former Taoiseach Michael Martin, have been rivals since the civil war a century ago, these days there is little to differentiate the two centre-right parties. After the 2020 election they formed a coalition for the first time alongside the Green Party. That looks likely to be repeated, though this time without the Greens who were nearly wiped out in the election. Instead, they are likely to approach the Social Democrats and Labour, which hold similar left-of-centre positions to the Greens.
If the action of the main parties did not produce much excitement, there was fascination with the attempt by alleged gangland figure Gerard “the Monk” Hutch to win a seat in Dublin. He lost narrowly, as he contested the election in his inner-city base while out on bail for money-laundering charges in Spain.
In a less controversial subject, the Social Democrat party leader Holly Cairns posted a picture of herself on social media holding her new daughter, born on the day voters went to the polls. Cairns will likely have a busy time ahead with the Social Democrats pushing for a seat at the table after a successful social media-driven campaign.
Ireland is simultaneously thriving and struggling with a number of crises. While the country boasts full employment and a huge budget surplus, voters expressed anger at the cost of living and a chronic inability to build enough houses, followed by concerns over healthcare.
But exit poll data on Friday showed the differing priorities of Irish voters. Almost half of those voting for left-leaning Sinn Féin said housing and homelessness were their most pressing concerns, while only 17 per cent of those supporting the two government parties said the same.
On election day, homelessness figures hit a record high of nearly 15,000. It’s an issue that dates back to the financial crash, ever since when the supply of affordable housing has been inadequate. There are many reasons – one is a lack of investment in social housing, despite Ireland becoming one of Europe’s richest countries. With a huge influx of Ukrainian refugees and a surge in numbers of asylum seekers from elsewhere since 2022, the country was suddenly rocked by anti-immigration protests.
Just over a year before the general election, rioters set vehicles in the centre of Dublin ablaze. The riots were fuelled by far-right agitators after an attack on school children in the city centre led to false rumours online that the attack was perpetrated by a foreign national. Anti-immigrant protests continued in the months that followed leading up to the local and European elections in May, during which five candidates with far-right agendas were elected.
Months on, the support for the right seems to have petered out, with no far-right breakthrough. Yet, while Ireland appears to keep defying the European trend to the right, around 6% of voters said immigration was their primary concern, which suggests that the issue might not be about to disappear. And, as the Irish Times points out, the results may indicate that, as elsewhere in Europe, the main parties have hardened their stance on immigration in a bid to stem their losses.
One big takeaway from this election is the evaporation of support for the Green Party, which lost 11 of its 12 seats. Just about keeping it together on Saturday as he awaited results, party leader Roderic O’Gorman acknowledged the low priority voters give to climate change or the environment.
“I suppose enough people weren’t feeling in their pocket that the Greens were as focused at insulating people from the cost of living spikes that the other two parties were.” Friday’s exit poll showed that climate was a main priority for just 4% of voters. O’Gorman was the only party member to retain a seat.
Outgoing media minister Catherine Martin and former deputy of the Greens said it was the “same old story” of the smaller party in government taking the hit. Speaking ahead of the final outcome, she said she hoped whoever would lead the next Dáil would prioritise climate policy. At a time in which the world faces climate collapse, the lack of concern is striking, if not surprising.
For those who voted for Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, economic stability came high on their list of priorities. The topic came up regularly during the campaign with prime minister Harris warning of turbulent times ahead now that Donald Trump is returning to the White House.
Ireland’s economy depends on foreign direct investment and on the tax returns mainly from the American tech and pharmaceutical industries that are based there. Trump’s threat of tariffs on foreign imports and his plan to bring US industries back on shore could be catastrophic for Ireland’s economy. The re-election of Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil points to voters taking heed of Harris’s warning that Ireland will need a “stable government” going into 2025.
The stability of that new government may depend on how well it deals with both global volatility and the crises at home. The vote for continuity is no guarantee the government will find it.
