When Joe Biden was sworn in in January 2021, many expected him to be the “reserved president”. His mandate: to heal the country’s wounds after four turbulent years of Donald Trump. Don’t try to be a transformative figure. Then hand over the reins to a competent successor.
Fast forward to 2024 and there is room for debate about the merits (and drawbacks) of Biden’s first term legacy. But it was Biden’s decision to run for office that became the major flash point for the Democrats.
Vote compiled by US political site FiveThirtyEight shows Biden with a dismal approval rating below 40%. Former President Trump, “inevitable” Republican candidate who all clinched his ticket for the general election with primary victories in Iowa And New Hampshiretook the lead in a face-off against Biden in almost every swing state.
Many allies, privately and publicly, worry that Biden risks not only overstaying his welcome, but also passing the baton to his twice-impeached rival whom Biden himself pilloris as a existential threat to democracy.
Is it too late for Biden to bow out in 2024? Technically, no. Biden could, for any reason, declare that he is no longer seeking a second term.
If he did so before March, the other Democrats would still have (a little) time to get their names on many primary ballots, even if the deadlines are set at more than 30 states (representing approximately two-thirds of the delegates) have already passed.
If that doesn’t happen by then, his successor would be determined in a high-stakes framework. brawl at party congress scheduled for the end of August. Unless the Democratic Party changes the rules, delegates committed to Biden would enter the convention “uncommitted,” and therefore would lobby, and ultimately vote, for a replacement.
In practice, however, the chances of Biden changing course now appear slim. The two main reasons to move forward haven’t changed since Biden announced his re-election bid last April. First, Biden is the only candidate who has proven he can beat Trump. Second, there is no obvious heir.
The only one who can beat Trump?
Biden explicitly said said that “(Trump) is running, so I have to run.” Even though he said while he is not the only one who can unseat Trump, Biden clearly feels he has a significant advantage. On the one hand, he’s already proven he can do it.
There’s a reason Biden secured the Democratic nomination in 2020. Biden’s working-class roots, his resonance with moderate voters, and his ability to sell himself as the most “electable” Democrat ultimately earned him a victory by behind during these primaries.
In this general election, Democrats’ confidence in him paid off. Biden Spike key swing statesincluding Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona and Pennsylvania – all of which went for Trump over Hillary Clinton in 2016.
Unlike a typical election, 2024 will likely be more of an election referendum on Trump than the holder of the Oval Office. Biden is betting that voters will prefer the devil they know. “Do not compare me to the Almighty” he says. “Compare me to the alternative.”
No heir apparent
Democrats also don’t have a large group of obvious successors. Biden sees it as sparing the party from what would otherwise be a brutal nomination fight.
Don Menning/Alamy
While Trump took a commanding lead in the Republican primaries and crushed his challenger and former governor of South Carolina, Nikki Haley, a contested Democratic primary would be punitive. The candidate who emerges would be battle-tested, but potentially too busy nursing his wounds to head into the general election.
Four years ago, many considered current Vice President Kamala Harris to be Biden’s running mate. natural heir. Few people say that now. If Biden’s poll numbers were disappointing, Harris’s were a disaster. Her recent approvalsat 37%, is the lowest of any first-term vice president since Dan Quayle in the early 1990s.
Other familiar Names who ran in 2020 — like U.S. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg or Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar — could replace Biden. But it’s no coincidence that they lost to Biden in 2020. No one has managed to unite moderate Democrats and progressives, much less defeat Republicans and swing voters.
Some believe California Governor Gavin Newsom is already running a “ghost campaign” for the White House, while Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer is also “happy to be asked” about a presidential candidacy. Yet many view Newsom as “too Hollywood,” while Whitmer has not been scrutinized on the national stage.
New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez was also reportedly considered a potential replacement for Biden. But a populist, hard-line leftist, without the crossover appeal of left-wing Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, would almost certainly guarantee a Trump victory.
Experts have also speculated on the possibility of a “Saviour” parachuted into the Democratic Convention, like the former first lady michelle obama or even a legendary television personality Oprah Winfrey. This sounds more like liberal fantasies.
No going back
Biden had plenty of opportunities to ride gracefully into the sunset. He could have said that he had accomplished everything he set out to do. He could have cited his desire to see a rising generation represented in politics.
It now seems that there is no going back. In eleven months, we will know if Biden made the right strategic decision. But if he fails, it will probably be several years before we know the full effects of this choice.
A Trump sequel promises, at best, some volatility and serious tests of American democratic norms and institutions. At worst, it promises a “term of revenge” — the full-fledged manifestation of the ugly belly which manifested itself on January 6 during the attack on the US Capitol.
In the absence of an exit plan, Biden’s legacy, whether he wins or loses, will invariably be tied to his refusal to be the “replacement president.”
