A majority of voters think Trump should be sentenced to prison.
A new Emerson College Polling national survey of American voters finds that 46% of voters support former President Donald Trump and 45% support President Biden in the 2024 presidential election. Nine percent are undecided. From last month, support for Trump remained the same, while support for Biden increased by one point. When undecided voters are asked which candidate they lean toward, the race is evenly split; 50% support Biden and 50% support Trump.
Forty percent of voters say Trump’s criminal conviction for 34 crimes has no impact on their vote in November — 33% say it makes them less likely to support the former president in November, and 27% more likely.
“Support for Trump in our polls remained the same before and after his conviction,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling. “A majority of Democrats say it makes them less likely to support Trump (51%) and a majority of Republicans (55%) say it makes them more likely to support Trump. A majority of independents say it has no impact (41%), while 38% are less likely to vote for Trump and 21% more likely.”
- 58% of undecided voters say the conviction has no impact on their vote; 36% less likely, 6% more likely.
“Suburban voters will rally to Trump over Biden, 48% to 44%, with a gender divide: suburban men will rally to Trump 57% to 35% while suburban women will rally to Biden 53% to 38%,” Kimball said. “Biden leads Trump among independent voters, 43% to 41%, including 17% undecided. »
Regarding Trump’s conviction in July, a majority of voters (40%) think Trump should be sentenced to prison for his criminal conviction, 25% think he should pay a fine, and 15% think he should receive probation. Twenty percent are unsure.
“Opinions on Trump’s sentence vary along party lines: 67% of Democrats think Trump should serve prison time, while 46% of Republicans think he should pay a fine; 42% of independents think he should serve jail time, 22% a fine and 14% probation,” Kimball said.
A majority of voters (64%) say Hunter Biden’s trial has no impact on their vote in 2024, 12% say it makes them more likely to support Joe Biden, and 24% say it makes them less likely to vote for Biden. Voters also had to answer one of the jury selection questions whether they thought Hunter Biden was being prosecuted because his father is president of the United States: 49% think he is not, 27% think it is and 24% are not sure.
With the inclusion of third-party candidates in the test runoff, Trump’s support fell by two points, from 46% to 44%, and Biden’s support by seven points, from 45% to 38%. Six percent support Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and 1 percent support Cornel West and Jill Stein, respectively. Nine percent are undecided.
President Biden holds a 37% approval rating and a 53% disapproval rating.
A majority of voters, 55%, disapprove of Biden’s handling of the nation’s immigration policy, while a quarter of voters (25%) approve. Regarding Biden’s recent executive order banning migrants from seeking asylum at the border once the average number of daily encounters reaches 2,500, 38% approve, 39% disapprove, and 23% are unsure.
The economy remains the most important issue for voters at 42%, an increase of four points from the Emerson May National Poll. Immigration is the second most important issue to voters at 15%, followed by threats to democracy at 12%, housing affordability at 7%, crime at 6%, access to abortion and health care with 5% respectively, and education with 4%.
Methodology
The Emerson College Polling National Survey was conducted June 4-5, 2024. The sample of registered voters, n = 1,000, has a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE). , by +/- 3 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, education, race, age, party affiliation, and region based on a 2024 registration model. Turnout modeling is based on U.S. Census metrics and voter registration data.
It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, have higher credibility intervals as the size of the sample is reduced. Survey results must be within the score range of the survey, and with a 95% confidence interval, a survey will fall outside the score range 1 in 20 times.
Data was collected by contacting landlines via interactive voice response (IVR) (provided by Aristotle) and an online voter panel provided by CINT. The survey was offered in English.
All questions asked in this survey with their exact wording, as well as full results, demographics and crosstabs can be found under Full Results. This investigation was funded by Emerson College.
