The US presidential election will take place on November 5. Nate Silver’s Aggregate According to national polls, Democrat Kamala Harris leads Republican Donald Trump 49.3 to 46.2, a slight gain for Trump. since last Mondaywhen Harris led Trump 49.3 to 46.0.
Joe Biden’s final standing before his withdrawal as the Democratic nominee on July 21 was a national polling deficit against Trump of 45.2 to 41.2.
In economic data, the United States added 254,000 jobs in september and the unemployment rate slipped from 0.1% to 4.1%. The unemployment rate peaked at 4.3% in July.
The American president is not elected by national popular vote, but by the Electoral College, in which each state receives a number of electoral votes equal to its seats in the federal House (based on its population) and its senators (always two). Almost all states award their electoral votes on a winner-take-all basis, and it takes 270 electoral votes to win (out of 538 total).
Relative to the national popular vote, the electoral college is skewed in favor of Trump, with Harris needing at least a two-point popular vote victory to be the electoral college favorite in Silver’s model.
In key states, Harris remains ahead by one to two points in Silver polls in Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes), Michigan (15), Wisconsin (ten) and Nevada (six). If Harris wins these four states, she wins the Electoral College of at least 276-262. Trump leads by 0.5 points in North Carolina (16 electoral votes), by one point in Georgia (16) and by 1.2 points in Arizona (11).
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Kamala Harris slightly favorite to win US election as she leads narrowly in key states
In Silver’s model, Harris has a 56% chance of winning the Electoral College, a figure unchanged since last Monday’s article. THE Model FiveThirtyEight was more favorable to Harris in September, but now gives her a 55% chance of winning. The odds are close to 50-50 for either candidate, but Harris remains a slight favorite.
There are still more than four weeks until the election. So it’s time for the polls to change and for one candidate to have a decisive advantage in the Electoral College on Election Day. Or the polls could underestimate Harris or Trump, in which case the candidate who benefits from the poll error could achieve a decisive victory.
A considerable lead for the LNP in Queensland
The Queensland state election will take place on October 26. Fresh water survey for The Financial Review, conducted September 26-29 on a sample of 1,067 people, gave the Liberal National Party (LNP) a 56-44 lead, a five-point gain for the LNP since the previous Freshwater poll by July 2023.
Primary votes were 43% for the LNP (up three), 30% for Labor (down four), 12% for the Greens (up one), 8% for One Nation (up by one) and 7% for all others (down by one).
Labor Prime Minister Steven Miles had a net approval of -5, while LNP leader David Crisafulli had a net approval of +15. Crisafulli led Miles 46 to 38 as premier favorite.
The poll focused on Queensland’s federal leadership ratings, with Anthony Albanese at net -17, while Peter Dutton was at net zero. Queensland is a coalition-friendly state in federal elections when it comes to national results.
Dan Peled/AAP
Quarterly data from the Federal Newspoll
On September 30, The Australian published aggregated data for all four newspapers taken from July to September, with a combined sample of 5,035 people. THE Survey Bludger said the Coalition was led in NSW by 51 to 49, unchanged from the June term.
In Victoria, Labor led by 52 votes to 48, a gain of two points for the coalition. In Queensland, the Coalition was led by an unchanged 54-46. In Western Australia, Labor led with an unchanged score of 52-48. In South Australia, Labor led by 54-46, a one point gain for Labor.
The Survey Bludger BludgerTrack data shows results by education level. In the September term, Labor led 53 to 47 among the university-educated, a gain of one point for Labor. Among those trained at TAFE, there was a 50-50 tie, a one point gain for the Coalition. Those without higher education favored the Coalition by 51 to 49, a one-point gain for the Coalition.
Coalition takes lead in Morgan poll
A national Morgan Pollconducted from September 23 to 29 on a sample of 1,668 people, gave the Coalition a lead of 51 to 49, a gain of 1.5 points for the Coalition since the Morgan poll of September 16 to 22.
Primary votes were 38% for Coalition (up 0.5), 30% for Labor (down two), 13.5% for Greens (up one), 4.5% for One Nation (down 0.5), 9.5% for independents (stable) and 4.5% for others (up one). .
The main figure uses respondents’ preferences. But if preferences were allocated based on 2022 electoral flows, Labor led 51.5 to 48.5, a gain of 0.5 points for the coalition. There was an unusually large gap last week between the two measurements.
Solve Middle East Conflict Poll
Voting intentions have not yet been revealed National Resolve Survey for Nine Journals, conducted from October 1 to 5 from a sample of 1,606 people. When it comes to Australia’s political response to the Middle East conflict, 22% think Dutton and the Liberals have responded best, 18% Albanese and Labor and 6% Adam Bandt and the Greens, while 55% say none answered better or are unsure.
On Australia’s actions, 23% think we should express principled support for Israel, 12% for Gaza and 65% both or neither. When it comes to accepting refugees, 52% do not want any refugees accepted, 24% would accept refugees from Israel or Gaza, 13% from Gaza only, and 11% from Israel only.
