The US presidential election will take place on November 5. Nate Silver’s Aggregate According to national polls, Democrat Kamala Harris leads Republican Donald Trump 49.3 to 46.0 – a slight widening of the competition. since last Mondaywhen Harris led Trump 49.2 to 46.2.
President Joe Biden’s final standing before his withdrawal as the Democratic nominee on July 21 was a national polling deficit against Trump of 45.2 to 41.2.
There will be a debate Tuesday evening, US time between the vice-presidential candidatesDemocrat Tim Walz and Republican JD Vance. Vice presidential debates in previous elections have not had a significant influence on the vote.
The American president is not elected by national popular vote, but by the Electoral College, in which each state receives a number of electoral votes equal to its seats in the federal House (based on its population) and its senators (always two). Almost all states award their electoral votes on a winner-take-all basis, and it takes 270 electoral votes to win (out of 538 total).
The Electoral College is skewed in favor of Trump compared to the national popular vote, with Harris needing at least a two-point popular vote victory in Silver’s model to be the Electoral College favorite.
In Silver’s polling averages, Harris leads Trump by one to two points in Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes), Michigan (15), Wisconsin (ten) and Nevada (six). If Harris wins all these states, she win the electoral college by at least a margin of 276 to 262. Trump is ahead by less than a point in North Carolina (16 electoral votes) and Georgia (16), and if Harris wins both, she will win by 308-230.
In Silver’s model, Harris has a 56% chance of winning the Electoral College, up from 54% last Monday, but down from her high of 58% two days ago. Earlier this month, there were big differences in winning probability between Silver’s model and the Model FiveThirtyEightwhich was more favorable to Harris. But those models have almost converged, with FiveThirtyEight now giving Harris a 59% win probability.
There are still more than five weeks until Election Day, so the polls could shift in favor of either Trump or Harris between now and then. Harris’ lead of one to two points in key states is tenuous, which is why Trump is still considered to have a good chance of winning.
Money wrote on September 1 that the 2020 and 2016 polls were biased against Trump, but the 2012 polls were biased against Barack Obama. In the last two midterm elections (2022 and 2018), the polls were good. It is plausible that there will be a polling error this year, but it is impossible to predict which candidate such an error would favor.
On Sunday, Silver said that if there was a systematic error by three or four points in the polls in favor of Trump or Harris, this candidate would sweep all the swing states and easily win the electoral college. There are other scenarios in which a candidate underperforms in poll numbers for certain demographics, but outperforms with other demographics.
I wrote about the American elections for The Survey Bludger last Thursday, and also covered Canada’s dismal poll and by-election results for the ruling center-left Liberals ahead of elections due by October 2025, a dire poll for British Labor Prime Minister Keir Starmer, the new French Prime Minister, a German state election. and a socialist victory in the presidential election in Sri Lanka.
Economic data revised upwards
Last Thursday, a revised estimate of US GDP for the June quarter was released. There has been a sharp upward revision in real personal disposable income compared to previously published figures. This resulted in the personal savings rate being revised upwards to 4.9% in July compared to previously reported 2.9%, and it was 4.8% in August.
With these upward revisions, Silver’s economic index, which averages six indicators, now stands at +0.25, up from +0.09. As the incumbent’s candidate, a better economy than previously thought should help Harris.
Coalition takes narrow lead in Essential
In Australia, a national Essential surveyconducted September 18-22 with a sample of 1,117 people, gave the Coalition a 48-47 lead (including undecided voters) after a 48-48 tie in early September. This is the Coalition’s first lead in the Essential poll since mid-July.
Primary votes were 35% for the Coalition (steady), 29% for Labor (down one), 12% for the Greens (down one), 8% for One Nation (steady), 2 % for UAP (up one), 9% for all others (up one). ) and 5% undecided (stable).
Steven Markham/AAP
That of Anthony Albanese clear approval is up five points since August at –5, with 47% disapproving and 42% approving. Peter Dutton’s net approval has fallen to zero.
Concerning the regulation of social media, 48% consider it too weak, 43% fairly fair and 8% too strict. Between 67 and 17, voters were in favor of imposing an age limit for children to access social media (68 to 15 in July). By 71 votes to 12, voters supported making doxing (the public disclosure of personally identifiable information) a criminal offense (62 votes to 19 in February).
By 49 to 18, voters backed Labour’s help-to-buy scheme, and by 57 to 13, they backed the build-to-rent scheme. The questions provide details that few voters know.
Voters were told the Liberals and Greens had joined forces to delay Labor’s housing policies in the Senate. By 48 votes to 22, voters thought the Liberals and Greens should embrace and defend their own policies at the next election, rather than blocking Labor’s policies. Green voters supported adoption by 55 votes to 21.
Labor maintains narrow lead over Morgan
A national Morgan Pollconducted September 16-22 with a sample of 1,662 people, gave Labor a lead of 50.5 to 49.5, unchanged from the September 9-15 Morgan poll.
Primary votes were 37.5% for the Coalition (stable), 32% for Labor (up 1.5), 12.5% for the Greens (stable), 5% for One Nation (down by 0.5), 9.5% for the self-employed (down 0.5) and 3.5% for others (down 0.5).
The overall figure is based on respondents’ preferences. By 2022, electoral preferences were pouring in, with Labor leading with an unchanged score of 52-48.
