Polls are bullshit, but trends tell a story
Political polls are lies. National political polls are lies squared. That said, let’s look at the latest presidential election results from the Washington Post/ABC News/Ipsos campaign survey. Not for the absolute numbers. But because the survey sheds light on some Positive trends among the electorate.
In conclusion, Kamala Harris has eliminated the national advantage that Trump enjoyed. In this poll, she leads Trump by 4% (49% to 45%). If we take into account the other candidates, she leads Trump by 3% (47% to 44%).

The shift to Harris is also reflected in the key states. Trump still leads in four of the seven key states. But the trend toward Kamala, in less than a month, is telling.

Approval
The most important good news for Harris and the Democrats is the approval numbers for the candidates themselves and their policies.
Since President Biden handed over the reins to his vice president, support for the Democratic nominee has increased across many demographic groups, including independents and young people. It has also improved across all ethnic groups.

Then we come to voters’ views of the candidates “as individuals.” Harris wins hands down. At a time when the majority of the country’s politicians and political institutions have a net negative opinion, Kamala is in the positive column, 45% to 44%. Trump is shrinking in his rearview mirror, with a net negative opinion of 22 percentage points—35% view him favorably and 57% unfavorably.
This overall personal approval advantage over Trump is reflected in Americans’ preference for Harris across all five areas surveyed separately.
- Physical health (+30%)
- Mental acuity (+9%)
- Honesty (+15%)
- Personal values (+6%)
- Empathy (+7%)

Some of these numbers may seem unreasonably close. But considering how deeply divided the electorate is and how passionately blinded MAGA supporters are, the difference is significant. It also shows that Harris has an advantage, while Trump does not. Trump is so well-known that his numbers are unlikely to change. While Kamala has an opportunity to make headway in the significant “neither” number.
The stakes
On the issues, the results are more mixed. But Harris has opportunities that Trump does not. Neither candidate has yet convinced a majority to trust him more on a single issue. But while Trump won’t score points—after eight years of hype, he won’t change anyone’s mind in two months—Kamala is just beginning to make her policies known.

She’s no shy violet. Her early ads attacked Trump on his biggest issue, immigration. Her first major policy speech offered solutions to combat inflation, which is falling sharply anyway. On the economy as a whole, she presented plans to cut taxes for the richest 90%, improve child tax credits and help first-time buyers.
Of course, there is an element of ambition in all this, but it is a plan, unlike Trump’s philosophy, which is a liar without accomplishments who says “trust me.”
The next two months
Harris’ campaign has reserved A $370 million ad campaign in key states. I guarantee it will move the needle. Trump’s advantage is that many Americans—especially uninformed voters—think Republicans are generally better on the economy, crime, and immigration.
The facts are quite different.
The economy has been doing better than it has under Democratic administrations for a long time. Crime has fallen under Biden. And Republicans just voted down a sweeping bipartisan immigration bill. The huge advertising investment will at least bring some misguided voters to the truth.
Even mainstream media outlets tend to be less biased in their reporting of issues. They are less likely to let MAGA guests speak without being upset. They still give equal airtime to flat-Earthers, though.
The Harris campaign is focused on building a well-funded and well-trained internal campaign. Trump’s supporters have outsourced their voter mobilization drive to a bunch of special interest groups, who may or may not know what they’re doing. But they will be uncoordinated and likely to duplicate their efforts in one place and ignore another.
Tim Walz versus JD Vance — that’s it.
Finally, Trump seems to be cracking under pressure. He doesn’t know how to present himself to a dynamic, determined black woman. Kamala is cheerful. Donald is depressing. His whining marathons have seen many empty seats. His press conferences are a monotonous joke. And he’s been too lazy to go to many places.
He thought the debate with Biden guaranteed him victory. It is entirely possible that the debate with Harris will guarantee his defeat.
That said, Harris needs to act like she’s behind the times. And she needs to hire a team of lawyers to thwart Trump’s best chance of winning: trying to steal the election.