SÃO PAULO — The year 2023 began with a armed insurrection in the Brazilian capital when thousands of supporters of former President Jair Bolsonaro stormed Congress, the Supreme Court and the presidential palace on January 8. The year ended with Argentina’s largest unions calling for national strikes and Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro mobilize troops after a highly controversial referendum on claims to the Essequibo oil region, which belongs to neighboring Guyana.
And yet, despite a difficult macroeconomic and geopolitical scenario, 2023 has not been a bad year for Latin America. Over the past twelve months, a cautious approach optimistic outlook among analysts are becoming more and more common. Economic growth in 2023 is expected to be at 2.2%-a little better than 1.7% initially projectedbut still below the global average of 3.2%. Most analysts expect a slight slowdown in growth, 1.9% this year, it is too little to decisively overcome the deep popular discontent that has prevailed in recent years throughout Latin America.
What trends should observers watch for in the region in 2024? Five are worth highlighting:
1. More political continuity than in previous years
The coming year can be expected to be marked by more political continuity than change in Latin America: just look at the likely results of some upcoming presidential elections. Luis Abinader of the Dominican Republic, enjoying a popularity rating of about 70%, is the favorite to be re-elected in May. A month later, Claudia Sheinbaum, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s hand-picked successor, will likely be elected in Mexico and is seen above all as pragmatic enough to ensure that the country continues to benefit from American outsourcing.
Despite a deeply worrying drift toward authoritarianism, political continuity is also the most likely scenario in El Salvador, where President Nayib Bukele is installed. to be re-elected comfortably. And none of the region’s most repressive regimes – in Caracas, Havana and Managua – show signs of significant change in their policies.
In Brazil, the October municipal elections, considered an indicator of the 2026 presidential election, are unlikely to produce a political earthquake. October’s presidential elections in Uruguay are unlikely to keep investors up at night.
2. The growing benefits of being a spectator to geopolitical unrest
Latin America’s geopolitical spectator status has long attracted the attention of investors in a world increasingly marked by tensions on the international stage. Yet as the post-Cold War order, which guaranteed relative geopolitical stability since the early 1990s, appears to be slipping away, Latin America is bound to benefit even more from its move away from proliferation. problem of interstate wars throughout the world. In 2022, the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO) checked in 55 state conflicts in 38 countries, the highest figure in decades. The significant potential for escalation of wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, or the emergence of a conflict involving Taiwan, will inevitably lead a growing number of investors to consider betting on Latin America to reduce their exposure to conflicts geopolitics. This does not mean that Latin America will remain unscathed by ongoing global geopolitical tensions, but its geographic distance from major hotspots is increasingly likely to provide it with a comparative advantage over other regions more directly exposed to conflicts.
In this direction, Maduro’s recent overtures towards Guyana are worrying. However, a real war between Caracas and Georgetown is unlikely. Above all, we must see this as the Venezuelan government’s attempt to produce a rallying effect around the flag before the next (very probably unfair) elections.
3. Lula seeks to make himself known globally
In 2023, Brazil’s Lula actively sought geopolitical attention, often weighing in on controversially on issues such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the war between Israel and Gaza, causing considerable friction between Brazil and the West. This year, there will likely be many more, in part because of Brazil’s presidency of the G20, which will provide the president with an additional opportunity to seek to set the global agenda. Brazilian Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira’s assertion that Brazil would be “content” Hosting Russian President Vladimir Putin at the G20 summit in November – despite the International Criminal Court’s arrest warrant for Putin – shows that Brazil will not shy away from controversy this year, reflecting the country’s challenge to develop a foreign policy in a context of growing tensions between the West on one side and Beijing and Moscow on the other. Lula’s trip to Russia for BRICS Summit 2024– which Putin will use to show the West that he is not isolated – is sure to spark heated debates about Brazil’s international strategy.
4. All eyes are on Argentina
The current political situation in Argentina is typical of a president elected on the basis of a program of radical change, but who does not have the majority in Congress to implement it. Although in very different circumstances, Colombian Gustavo Petro and Chilean Gabriel Boric recently encountered something similar. By presenting a series of presidential decrees and a massive legal package in the first days of his presidency, Javier Milei is signaling that he will try nonetheless. Yet the obstacles – at the legislative level, the judiciary and in the streets, where the opposition will organize large demonstrations – are significant, and the president will most likely have to make an effort. substantial concessions, just like his peers in Santiago and Bogotá. Still, given the scale of the stakes and Milei’s lack of leadership experience, the risk of political turbulence in Argentina in the first half of 2024 is greater than anywhere else in the region. That will limit Milei’s room to maneuver on the foreign policy front, and his early moves suggest he won’t seek to antagonize figures like Lula as much as he did during the campaign. This could change in 2025 if Donald Trump Back in the White House, allowing Milei to swim in the American wake and radicalize on the foreign policy front, just as Bolsonaro did in his first two years as president when Trump was in power.
5. Climate change impacts Latin America’s economy
Looking ahead to 2023, El Niño, which disrupts weather patterns across the region due to rising water temperatures in the Pacific, could continue to impact Latin American economies in various ways, causing droughts in certain regions (such as Central America, Colombia). and the Amazon) and increased precipitation in others (northern Mexico, Paraguay, Uruguay, and parts of Argentina), adding uncertainty to countries that rely on agricultural production. The biggest loser in the region could be Panama, where the Panama Canal could be forced to reduce the number of ships passing through it, as it has done in 2023.
Taken together, these trends portend a somewhat more stable scenario in Latin America, especially when compared to the rest of the world, where all eyes will be on the war in the Middle East, the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, the US presidential elections and the growing growth of Latin America. geopolitical tensions in Asia.
Keywords: geopolitics, Latin America, Presidential elections, The year to come
The views expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect those of Americas Quarterly or its publishers.