A leading expert explores China’s domestic crisis, its global ambitions, and the potential for U.S.-China cooperation
Susan Shirk is a research professor at the UC San Diego School of Global Policy and Strategy and director emeritus of its 21st Century China Center. She received her BA in Political Science at Mount Holyoke College, MA in Asian Studies at the University of California, Berkley, and her PhD in Political Science from MIT. Shirk is one of the most influential experts working on US-China relations and Chinese politics. She is also director emeritus of the UC Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC). From 1997-2000, Shirk served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of State in the Bureau of East Asia and Pacific Affairs, with responsibility for China, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Mongolia.
Shirk co-chairs a task force of China experts that issued its second report “Course Correction: Toward an Effective and Sustainable China Policy,” in February 2019. She is also co-chair of the UC San Diego Forum on US-China Relations, the first ongoing high-level forum focused entirely on the US-China relationship. Shirk’s many books include China: Fragile Superpower (2008), which helped frame the policy debate on China in the US and other countries, Competitive Comrades: Career Incentives and Student Strategies in China (1982); The Political Logic of Economic Reform in China (1993); How China Opened its Door (1994); and her edited book, Changing Media, Changing China (2010). Her most recent book is Overreach: How China Derailed Its Peaceful Rise (2022).
Furman University, March 2025 — As part of the Tocqueville Center’s spring lecture series, Susan Shirk, a renowned China expert, delivered a sweeping, often sobering, analysis of U.S.-China relations, Xi Jinping’s leadership, and the mounting uncertainty surrounding China’s political future. Drawing from her award-winning book Overreach: How China Derailed Its Peaceful Rise, Shirk offered students, faculty, and community members a deep look into Beijing’s internal dysfunction and international ambitions.
“China hasn’t always looked the way it does under Xi Jinping. Its future is far from predetermined.”
From the dangers of deteriorating Taiwan relations to the rise of “long-distance fishing” (a euphemism for politically motivated extortion of private wealth), the discussion painted a complex picture of a powerful yet vulnerable regime facing backlash from within and abroad.
Watch Susan Shirk’s lecture here:
China at a Crossroads: Xi Jinping, U.S. Tensions, and the Uncertain Future of Global Power
Shirk opened by emphasizing a foundational question in foreign policy analysis: What does China want?
While some interpret Beijing’s moves through a realist lens—that growing Chinese military capabilities inevitably lead to strategic competition—Shirk insisted on a more nuanced view. For much of the post-Mao era, she argued, China pursued policies of peaceful rise and international integration.
“There was a time when China prioritized openness, legal reform, and global cooperation. That time is not as far away as it seems.”
From Deng Xiaoping to Hu Jintao, Shirk traced an era of reform marked by internal decentralization and engagement with international institutions. But by the late 2000s, a “control coalition” of bureaucratic interests gained power, amplifying the threat of internal unrest and justifying increased state repression.
Xi Jinping’s Consolidation of Power
Shirk described the dramatic shift under Xi Jinping, who rose to power in 2012 amid deep dissatisfaction with systemic corruption and the weaknesses of collective leadership. His unprecedented anti-corruption campaign has punished nearly 5 million officials, with 10% of the Chinese Communist Party elite now behind bars.
“Xi didn’t steal power. He was given it. And he used that mandate to transform China’s political structure.”
Yet the campaign was more than a clean-up act. It consolidated Xi’s authority, purging rivals and re-centralizing decision-making. Even Xi’s hand-picked protégés have not been spared.
COVID Fallout and Economic Slowdown
Shirk highlighted the lasting damage from China’s zero-COVID policies, which drained local governments and alienated citizens.
“China turned down foreign vaccines for nationalist reasons. That decision cost millions of lives.”
The post-COVID period saw the dramatic rise of educated youth unemployment, the collapse of real estate developers, and a surge in discontent among private entrepreneurs. Shirk reported from her recent trip to China that millions of disaffected business owners are now leaving the country, seeking economic freedom and personal safety elsewhere.
A Climate of Fear: Surveillance and Repression
One particularly jarring segment focused on the personal insecurity now facing private business leaders. Shirk described a phenomenon dubbed “long-distance fishing,” in which local governments seize businesspeople from other regions to extract wealth through intimidation.
“This isn’t underground behavior. The state media is reporting on it.”
This reflects a broader climate of political paranoia and weakened trust within the Chinese Communist Party itself. As Shirk noted, even China’s own security services have become objects of scrutiny.
Strategic Vulnerabilities: Military Reform and Taiwan
Despite Xi’s prioritization of military modernization, Shirk warned that recent purges of top generals signal deep uncertainty within the Chinese armed forces. Xi does not know the true capabilities of his military, and recent corruption scandals have shaken his confidence.
On Taiwan, Shirk questioned widespread U.S. assumptions about an imminent invasion.
“If Xi tries and fails to take Taiwan, he could fall. That makes him cautious, not reckless.”
The 2027 invasion rumor, she suggested, may be more American projection than Chinese intent. Despite public bravado, internal dynamics and military unreliability may deter Beijing from action.
Can Xi Be Understood?
A major debate in China analysis is how much weight to place on Xi Jinping’s own speeches and ideology. Shirk was skeptical of literal interpretations:
“There’s often a gap between what leaders say and what they intend to do. Especially in authoritarian systems.”
While figures like Kevin Rudd urge the West to study Xi’s public statements closely, Shirk encouraged listeners to also examine internal contradictions, bureaucratic incentives, and historical contingencies.
A U.S. Strategy in Flux
In the panel discussion that followed, Furman professor Kate Coyer and Johns Hopkins historian Sergey Radchenko joined Shirk to discuss the future of U.S.-China diplomacy.
Radchenko raised the issue of Taiwan once again, criticizing visits like Nancy Pelosi’s for exacerbating tensions without gaining strategic advantage. He also questioned whether a second Trump administration would even retain the credibility to deter Chinese aggression.
“How can you deter China if your own leadership seems unmoored from strategy?”
Coyer emphasized the decline in U.S.-China academic exchange, noting that both governments have contributed to the erosion of trust. She warned that a new Cold War will be fueled not just by trade disputes or military drills, but by a war on expertise.
Hope for Incremental Engagement
Despite the grim outlook, Shirk ended on a note of guarded optimism. Given China’s internal crises, she argued, Beijing may be more open to economic negotiation than it appears.
“There may be a window—a slim one—for step-by-step diplomacy.”
Rather than a sweeping grand bargain, Shirk advocated starting with economic concessions, such as voluntary export restraints and increased domestic consumption in China. These small steps could help ease U.S.-China trade tensions and possibly reopen doors for broader cooperation.
Key Takeaways
- Xi Jinping’s anti-corruption campaign has purged millions and consolidated power but created a culture of fear.
- China faces severe economic headwinds, from real estate collapse to youth unemployment.
- Despite military investments, China may be strategically deterred from acting on Taiwan.
- The U.S.-China relationship remains in flux, with Trump-era unpredictability and academic disengagement undermining clarity.
Incremental economic talks may offer a path forward, but require mutual trust.
