NORTH CAROLINA (WTVD) — There’s only one week left Election Daywe have a better idea of who will vote.
More than 3.1 million people across North Carolina voted between mail-in voting and in-person early voting.
As of Tuesday, registered Republicans had a slight turnout advantage over registered Democrats, 34 to 33 percent, with the remaining 32 percent unaffiliated.
GOP volunteers see this as a positive sign.
“I’m thrilled and encouraged and surprised, it was a big surprise,” said Sandy Joiner of the Western Wake Republican Club.
Sandy Joiner says for Republicans, this is a change from 2020, when voters were asked to wait until Election Day.
“I think the fact that Democrats were still dominated in early voting was a big part of the push and the question was, what can we do to get the message out and make sure we’re there to vote and we don’t? “I didn’t wait until election day. That’s why we promoted it,” she says.
The data also shows that black voters, historically a core part of the Democratic base, are slightly behind in turnout, accounting for 18% of those who have voted, although they make up 20% of registered voters.
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Former state Rep. Larry Hall (D-Durham) says he thinks that may change this week.
“I’d rather be way ahead than always. It’s not where we are right now, but we’re way ahead in terms of effort, determination and the message that we have,” Hall said.
Another data point Democrats are looking at is the fact that women outvote men by 55 to 45 percent, at a time when women’s rights have become a key campaign theme.
Democrats also believe they will gain some crossover support and that unaffiliated voters, who make up the state’s largest voting bloc, will be able to force their way through.
“Unaffiliated voters are essential. They are younger. Newly registered voters are much younger. The younger vote is for Harris, and virtually every poll will say they are for Harris. We “So let’s feel encouraged by that. And it’s about getting them to the polls,” Hall said.
At the same time, political science experts at Duke University are also warning people not to read too much into 2024 voter turnout data compared to four years ago, because the electorate was very different then.
“During a pandemic, we’ve seen a lot more people voting by mail, and there’s also been a fundamental shift in messaging from Republicans and so we’re seeing a much higher percentage of Republicans voting early and voting by mail” , explains Professor Sunshine Hillygus.
In the long term, experts say our state’s changing demographics could change the political landscape with a more diverse electorate and more transfers from other states, similar to how Georgia turned blue in 2020 for Joe Biden.
“North Carolina may be starting to resemble Georgia in terms of racial and ethnic demographics, but also in terms of the number of people coming into the state from out of state. There has been a shift in population at over the last four years, which could be enough to make North Carolina trend from purple to blue,” says Professor Kerry Haynie.
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