A new study published in Quarterly Political Research highlights a notable trend: people who purchased guns during the COVID-19 pandemic have higher levels of distrust in government, are more likely to believe conspiracy theories, participate in protests and support political violence than pre-existing gun owners and non-gun owners.
In recent years, the United States has experienced increased political polarization, growing distrust of government, and instances of political violence. These trends have raised concerns about the stability of American democracy. Researchers recognized that understanding the motivations and behaviors of gun buyers during a pandemic could provide insight into these broader issues.
“We approached this subject from three different angles. In 2020, Jamie Druckman, Jon Green and I were part of a team of researchers leading the COVID States Project, a monthly survey of 50 states examining the impact of Covid-19 on American society,” explained the author corresponding. Matthew Simonsonlecturer at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem and co-author of Black networks matter.
“After learning of an unprecedented rise in gun purchases, we added a question about gun purchasing to the survey and recruited Matt Lacombe who had just published a book on the role of gun ownership in American politics. This is now the second study we have published together on gun purchasing during a pandemic.
“Our first article showed that new gun buyers had less trust in the government and were more likely to believe conspiracy theories than pre-existing gun owners. It seemed to us that a natural next step was to examine whether many of these gun buyers were not just more distrustful of the government, but also predisposed to act against it.
The study used a large-scale survey to collect data from more than 32,000 respondents across the United States. This large sample size allowed researchers to capture a wide range of views and behaviors related to gun ownership and political attitudes. Data was collected over three survey waves: December 2020 to January 2021, April to May 2021, and June to July 2021. The survey was designed to be representative of the U.S. population, with weighting applied to reflect criteria demographics such as race, gender, age, education, geographic region and urbanicity.
To measure key variables, the survey included specific questions about weapons purchases, trust in government institutions, belief in conspiracy theories, participation in protests and support for political violence. For example, respondents were asked whether they or anyone in their household purchased a gun during the pandemic. Trust in government was assessed using questions about trust in the handling of COVID-19 by various government agencies.
Conspiracy beliefs were assessed using statements about COVID-19 cures, vaccine microchips, QAnon, and the fairness of the 2020 election. Protest participation was measured by asking questions about participation in demonstrations and the causes of these demonstrations. Support for political violence was assessed using questions about approval of violence in response to perceived unfair elections and feelings toward the January 6 Capitol attack.
The study found that people who purchased guns during the pandemic demonstrated significantly lower trust in government institutions compared to non-gun owners and pre-existing gun owners who did not. had not purchased additional firearms during this period. This trend has been true at different levels of government, including the White House, Congress, state governments, and municipalities.
Pandemic gun buyers were more likely to endorse conspiracy theories than non-gun owners and pre-existing gun owners. For example, a significant proportion of pandemic gun buyers believed in theories such as the existence of a hidden cure for COVID-19 and the presence of microchips in vaccines. They were also more likely to believe false claims from QAnon and Donald Trump that the 2020 election was stolen.
Gun buyers during a pandemic were more likely to participate in protests, especially those challenging the state. This included protests over COVID-19 restrictions and the legitimacy of the 2020 election. Data showed that 14.6% of pandemic gun buyers reported attending a protest during the pandemic, a higher rate significantly higher than among pre-existing gun owners and non-gun owners.
“We were surprised to find that gun buyers were not only more likely to attend protests, but that the most popular type of protest was ‘against racism and police brutality,’” Simonson told PsyPost. “Despite the stereotype that gun owners are conservative or opposed to Black Lives Matter, nearly 10% reported attending a protest against racism and police brutality, twice the national average.”
“In contrast, 5% said they attended protests against Covid-19 restrictions and 5% protested the election (including those who attended more than one type of protest). In total, one in six pandemic gun buyers attended an event in 2020-21. So we can say that hundreds of thousands of recent gun buyers were ready to voice their grievances against the government in the streets and not just at the ballot box.”
Perhaps most worryingly, researchers found that pandemic gun buyers were more likely to support political violence. This was measured by their approval of the use of violence if the 2020 election was perceived to be unfair and by their reactions to the attack on the Capitol on January 6. A notable share of pandemic gun buyers expressed positive feelings toward the storming of the Capitol.
“Among the millions of Americans who purchased guns during the pandemic, about half expressed low confidence in Congress, the White House, or their state or city government,” Simonson said. “More than four in ten people believed the election was stolen, and a third supported the storming of the U.S. Capitol on January 6.
“But perhaps more alarming is the smaller but still substantial fraction of gun buyers (one in eight) who said they would approve of others using violence if elections were unfair. This is of course a minority view, but that still represents thousands of people who have purchased guns in the past year. And these are not people who just complain about politics but don’t take action; about one in six pandemic gun buyers reported attending a protest in 2020.”
“So while our work is far from suggesting any sort of organized armed movement, it does show that there is now a large reservoir of Americans who distrust the state, are accustomed to participating in protests, approve of the use of other violence and who chose to purchase a gun.
Further analysis within the pandemic gun-buying group showed that those buying guns for political reasons (such as protection from the government, responding to lockdowns, or concerns regarding elections) were even more likely to distrust the government, believe conspiracy theories, participate in protests, and support political violence. This subgroup exhibited particularly pronounced anti-government sentiments and behaviors.
However, as with any research, there are some caveats to consider. The researchers did not directly ask respondents whether they participated in the Jan. 6 Capitol attack or planned to engage in political violence. Instead, they measured support for such actions, which does not necessarily translate into actual behavior. Additionally, the survey relies on self-reported data, which may introduce bias.
The study also highlights that gun owners are an important group with considerable influence on U.S. policy. Although most do not support political violence, a minority who have purchased guns for political reasons during the pandemic are raising concerns due to their anti-government sentiments and actions.
“A theme that permeates our work, Matt Lacombe’s in particular, is that gun owners should be recognized as an important political group,” Simonson told PsyPost. “Gun owners’ political views are not simply the result of being conservative, Republican, or rural, although many gun owners fall into these categories. And it’s not just the so-called “gun lobby” that includes organizations like the NRA. Gun owners as a group are an important political group, and together they exert considerable influence on American politics. »
“On the other hand, when it comes to political violence, our goal is not to collectively demonize gun owners. The vast majority of gun owners did not approve of political violence, and only a third of those who purchased guns indicated an unambiguous political reason for doing so (lockdown, protection from the government, or elections). Rather, we want to draw attention to the minority who gave a political reason for their purchase and also participated in protests, believed the elections were stolen, or were willing to condone violence against the state. »
“Perhaps the best example of this juxtaposition is that of those surveyed who attended an anti-government demonstration (i.e. protesting Covid restrictions or the election), 31% said having purchased a gun, about half for political reasons,” Simonson said. “If you take into account the number of Americans who already own guns, that’s only 4 percent of all gun owners, but that’s still almost a million people. And it is this small minority, ultimately, that worries us.
The study, “Guns and Democracy: Anti-System Attitudes, Protests, and Support for Violence Among Pandemic Gun Buyers“, was written by Matthew D. Simonson, Matthew J. Lacombe, Jon Green and James N. Druckman.
