Our guide to how Trump or Harris could win the election

Strim a thought for people like John King and Bill Hemmer. American television news anchors will have the unenviable task of occupying air time on November 5 before any significant election results are known. The real drama likely won’t begin until the first of the seven key states starts reporting their votes. How could these states determine the outcome of the US presidential election? Our data team created two charts that show the most likely paths to victory for Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.

Mr. Trump has an even better chance (95%) if he wins Michigan, but he has more alternative paths to the presidency without Michigan than without Pennsylvania. Other swing states are less influential: Ms. Harris and Mr. Trump win elections in just 62% and 73% of simulations, respectively, when they win Nevada, a state with just six electoral votes.

States with similar demographics tend to vote like others. The candidate who wins Pennsylvania, for example, will likely also win Michigan and Wisconsin. All three states have a disproportionate number of white working-class voters, and they have sided with the same candidate in every presidential election since 1992. Likewise, Arizona and Nevada both have large Hispanic populations , and North Carolina and Georgia both have large numbers. black voters. With one week to go, the votes are extremely close in all seven states. If it turns out that pollsters misjudged support for either candidate among these demographic groups, one would expect the polling error in these states to be similar.

Our second chart illustrates the probability of various combinations of swing state outcomes.

Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin vote together for the ten most likely swing state outcomes. Most likely of all – which happens in 20% of our simulated elections – is that Mr. Trump wins all seven elections and goes on to win the presidency (see chart). The second most likely solution is exactly the opposite: we give Ms Harris a 7% chance of sweeping all seven. The third would give all key states except Nevada to Mr Trump – that would be a repeat of the 2016 election. Based on all scenarios in our model, we give Ms. Harris a 44% chance of winning the election and Mr. Trump a 56% chance, making it practically a coin toss.

Most of the discussion on election night will focus on these seven states. But it’s also possible that another state could surprise: Few expected Indiana to vote for Barack Obama in 2008, for example, or Wisconsin to vote for Mr. Trump in 2016. Such a surprise would give certainly something for the experts to think about. , and would change the candidates’ path to victory. With polls closer than they have been in at least two decades, everything is still in play. ■