A new opinion survey of young voters in Pakistan finds a majority expect next week’s national elections to be transparent and fair, even though one of the frontrunners has been jailed and that the country’s independent human rights commission considers that there is little chance of an outcome being achieved. free and fair voting.
The youth survey, commissioned by VOA and conducted by international polling agency IPSOS, explored the voting trends, institutional trust and foreign policy preferences of voters aged 18 to 34. More than 56.8 million young people have the right to vote on February 8.
In the months leading up to the elections, a major political party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, led by former Prime Minister Imran Khan, was subject to a nationwide military-backed state crackdown , with hundreds of rank-and-file workers arrested, kidnapped and forced to leave the party or politics altogether.
Imprisoned Khan was sentenced this week to an additional 14 years in prison for corruption and leaking state secrets. The Supreme Court also upheld the Election Commission’s decision to deprive the former cricket captain’s party of its iconic election symbol, the cricket bat.
Despite these actions widely seen as targeting one of the country’s major parties, the survey found that around 65% of respondents expressed hope that the elections will be conducted in a transparent manner.
The survey also finds that Pakistan’s powerful military, which was again accused this year of meddling in the country’s politics, remains the most trusted institution among young people.
Some 74% of those surveyed expressed confidence in the military. The Supreme Court was ranked the second most trusted institution, with 58% of respondents saying they trust it. The media comes in third place, with 54% support. The electoral commission received the least confidence, with 42%.
Bilal I Gilani, executive director of Washington-based Gallup Pakistan, another research and consulting firm that has no ties to Gallup, said the results showing broad support for the military are consistent with previous polls , including a Gallup survey conducted in June 2023. that showed 88% of people trusted the military.
He said the military’s political interference in politics is usually associated with generals and other high-ranking officers, not ordinary soldiers. Pakistan has one of the world’s largest militaries, with approximately 630,000 active-duty troops and 150,000 members of the Frontier Corps and Rangers, according to 2023 estimates from the CIA Factbook.
That’s why, he explained, the military’s interference in politics doesn’t usually come to mind when people are asked about their confidence in the military, and they usually respond by keeping in mind the combat role of the army.
The survey also examined the perceived influence of institutions on elections, with most young people saying that no institution in Pakistan can manipulate the outcome of elections. However, among those who believe that elections can be rigged, the army appears to be the institution most likely to influence the electoral process.
International influence on the election was also explored in the poll, revealing that one in four young people believe the United States can influence the February 8 vote.
In Pakistan, about 60% of young people told pollsters that political leaders don’t understand their problems or priorities; however, this does not seem to diminish their interest in voting.
The survey found that 70% of respondents said they planned to participate in the elections. Most of them also said they planned to vote for the same party they supported in the 2018 election. About one in five respondents expressed a willingness to explore alternative political options.
On the other hand, around 17% of young people surveyed declared their decision to never vote.
Hasan Askari Rizvi, political commentator and former caretaker chief minister of Punjab, Pakistan’s largest province, believes that despite their distrust of the Election Commission, young people are likely to vote in large numbers thanks to the efficiency campaigns led by political parties.
He said that in previous elections, young people were not present in large numbers, but with the popularity of social media, he expects more to become politically engaged.
Qazi Khizar Habib, a member of the Human Rights Commission of Pakistan and a long-time election observer, said that in the last eight elections in Pakistan, the maximum voter turnout had increased to 50%.
He says youth turnout in these elections was much lower and suspects the percentage of young people who don’t plan to go to the polls is higher than 17 percent.
Young Voter Issues
Pakistan’s economy is a major concern. Last year, Pakistan recorded an inflation rate of 29%, and the survey showed that inflation (cited by 70% of respondents) and poverty (cited by 59%) are the biggest problems. more important for young voters. Additionally, three in four people said religious freedom and freedom of speech are important factors in deciding who to support.
In the area of foreign relations, the survey reveals that 69% of young people express a desire for better relations with India. The recent policy of deporting illegal Afghan refugees found the support of 66% of young people surveyed.
The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor has been identified as a valuable project for Pakistan by three out of four young Pakistanis. This widespread approval across all provinces indicates a consensus among the youth regarding the strategic importance of CPEC for the country’s economic development and regional connectivity.
This story has its origins in VOA Urdu Service.
