In India’s dynamic political landscape, recent parliamentary elections in five key states have revealed telling patterns in the role of political experience in electoral success. This analysis is not just a matter of electoral curiosity; data shows that newbies generally outperform experienced and veteran candidates. However, veterans’ average margin of victory is higher, reflecting their greater appeal in constituencies.
The Data Intelligence Unit of India Today analyzed the profiles of 678 winning candidates in these elections. The results are striking: 38 percent of these MPs are newcomers, reflecting a significant infusion of new political perspectives. A similar percentage are veteran politicians, and veterans make up 24 percent.
We ranked them based on their experience in state assembly elections: “First-time” candidates are those who are running in their first election. The “experienced” candidates have been in the running for two or three elections. And “veterans” are seasoned politicians who have more than three elections under their belt.
The political fabric of each state highlights unique trends.
Increased focus on new faces: The increase in the number of new applicants in Chhattisgarh could reflect a strategic decision to resonate with a population seeking new perspectives. In Telangana, this trend perhaps responds to specific regional concerns.
Varied partisan strategies: The Bharatiya Janata Party and Congress in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan have varied in their emphasis on experienced versus new candidates, reflecting tailored policy approaches.
Regional differences: The trends highlight regional differences in political dynamics, with states like Mizoram and Telangana showing unique changes in candidate experience categories between 2018 and 2023.
Why is this important
This trend reflects a political shift, with more new candidates suggesting new approaches to governance and hinting at future policy changes.
In numbers
- First-time candidates won more than 50 percent of seats in Chhattisgarh.
- Veterans held more than 30 percent of the constituencies in Madhya Pradesh.
- Veteran candidates had higher margins of victory than first-time and experienced candidates in three of the five states.
Deep dive
Based on data from the 2023 Assembly elections, here is a party-wise analysis of the winning candidates:
BJP: Around 35 percent of the winning BJP candidates were experienced, having contested two or three elections. About 38 percent were first-time applicants, introducing new perspectives. The remaining 27 percent were veterans, with more than three elections under their belt.
Congress: For Congress, about 43 percent of the successful candidates were experienced. New applicants made up about 34 percent, while veterans made up about 23 percent. This indicates a greater reliance on experienced candidates than the BJP.
Other parts: Winning candidates from other parties show a unique trend, with about 35 percent experienced, 47 percent being first-time candidates and about 19 percent being veterans. This demonstrates a strong propensity for new candidates among small or regional parties.
Chhattisgarh stood out, with around 52 percent of its candidates first-time, indicating a strong shift towards new political faces. Similarly, Telangana and Mizoram preferred first-time candidates, with around 45 per cent and 48 per cent respectively for the first time. This trend was less evident in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, where experienced candidates made up a larger proportion. Yet Madhya Pradesh had 34 per cent new candidates, a mix of new and seasoned politicians.
Representation of veteran candidates was comparatively lower in these states. Chhattisgarh had the lowest proportion, at just 18 percent. Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan have a more balanced distribution, with veterans accounting for around 31 percent and 24 percent, respectively. This trend indicates a strategic shift in political parties, favoring newer candidates over more experienced ones. This reflects a changing dynamic in the Indian political scene, where new individuals are increasingly being given opportunities to take on leadership roles and make an impact.
In BJP-dominated areas, veterans enjoyed unwavering support, while new faces of the INC made significant inroads into previously unexplored territories.
It is common to find that more than half of all sitting MPs do not return for a consecutive term in a given Assembly. This leads to a scenario in which most elected representatives are first-time MPs, bringing a constant influx of new perspectives into the legislative process.
A significant challenge encountered when extracting and analyzing these data sets is the presence of ambiguous or misspelled names, which can complicate the task of accurately categorizing and assessing the career length of these men policies.
Big picture
Overall victory margin data shows in five states that veteran candidates have slightly more power to achieve higher victory margins than novice and experienced candidates, indicating their stronger hold or appeal in their districts.
In recent Assembly polls, the average margin of victory in five states for the veteran candidate category was around 22,227 votes, while the average margin of victory for first-time candidates was 20,868. Experienced candidates’ average was around 20,495 votes.
In the 2023 congressional elections, veteran candidates appeared to have higher margins of victory than both novice and experienced candidates in three of the five states analyzed. However, in two states this trend does not hold, indicating that the correlation between experience level and margin of victory may vary across states. Although veteran status may be advantageous in some areas, it is not a trend that is universally applicable across all states.
The BJP, whether a first-time or veteran candidate, tends to have higher victory margins than experienced candidates. In contrast, experienced candidates generally have higher margins of victory in Congress and other parties than their rookie and veteran counterparts.
Conclusion
This analysis of the 2023 national elections offers a nuanced view of the changing preferences of the electorate, indicating a tendency to value innovation over leadership experience. This information could be crucial in shaping political strategies in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections, potentially heralding a new era in Indian politics.
