Political Trends With Election Day Only Three Weeks Away – Top 3 Takeaways – October 15, 2024
- Three weeks before election day…and the trend seems to be Donald Trump’s friend, which is also good news for Republicans down more than 20%. 90% of votes cast have been straight votes in recent cycles. Since we’re just 21 days away from Election Day and less than a week until early voting begins in Florida, let’s take a look at political trends across the state and across the country… starting with this that we observe locally. The Florida Division of Elections released its latest voter registration information representing all voter registration changes entering October, just seven days before the voter registration deadline for voter eligibility for November elections. What was the result? The Republicans added about 63,000 additional voters than Democrats over the previous month, when both parties were in full swing on voter registration. In fact, Republicans outnumbered registered Democrats by more than 10 to 1 in Florida in the month leading up to the voter registration deadline. This is the short-term trend that is popular with Donald Trump and Florida Republicans. The long-term trend is equally dramatic. On Election Day 2020 Democrats held a registration advantage of more than 100,000 voters in the state, that advantage grew to a huge advantage of more than a million voters before Election Day this year. Trump won Florida in 1.2% in 2016, 3.3% in 2020, and its average polls currently show it at a rate higher than 6 points lead this year. Long term, short term, it doesn’t matter. Florida’s trends are quite clear and stand out in bright red. With three weeks until Election Day, Florida is not a state that appears to be in play. But when it comes to overall states in play, there is…
- An awesome red trend in them too. Let’s look at the six most watched swing states this cycle. Using the RealClear Politics Average surveys… In Arizona, Trump is 4 points ahead of where he was four years ago when he lost the state and 0.3% ahead of where he was eight years ago when he lost the state. won. In GeorgiaTrump is just under 2 points ahead of where he was four years ago when he lost the state and just under 5 points behind where he was eight years ago when he won it. In MichiganTrump is eight points higher than he was four years ago when he lost it and more than 12 points ahead of where he was eight years ago when he won it. In NevadaTrump is five points better than he was four years ago when he lost the state and almost two points better than he was eight years ago when he also lost it. In North CarolinaTrump is nearly four points ahead of where he was four years ago when he won the state and 3.5 points ahead of where he was eight years ago when he also won state. In what is widely considered the most crucial pivotal state of this cycle, PennsylvaniaTrump is more than 7 points better than he was four years ago when he lost the state and he is more than 8 points better than he was eight years ago when he won it… and in WisconsinTrump is 6.5 points better than he was four years ago when he lost the state and just over 6 points better than he was eight years ago when he won it. If you followed me during the outage, this is what you see. Donald Trump is running better in every swing state than he was four years ago when he lost the election and he is running better in 5 of 6 states than he was eight years ago when he won the election (and the only exception is Georgia where Trump is still ahead in the polls). And the differences we see now are anything but small. In these states, Trump is doing on average 6 points better than four years ago when he narrowly lost the presidential election to Joe Biden and 4.5 points better on average than eight years ago when he won it. You don’t need any additional analysis from me to know that while Trump is averaging 4.5 points better today in key states than when he was elected president of the United States, a lot of things seem to open the way for him. And that brings us to…
- The big picture. What are the macroeconomic trends this election cycle? In Gallup’s most recent national partisan survey, 5 percent more voters lean Republican than Democratic. How much of a change does that seem like? Huge in fact. On Election Day 2016, the partisan trend was indicated at D+3. Likewise on election day 2020 it was also D+3. Republican Party identification is eight points better than it was four or eight years ago, and in fact, the eight-point advantage that Republicans currently enjoy is the best it has ever been for Republicans before an election. presidential election, dating back to Gallup’s monthly survey of party identification over 21 years. There is. None of this is to say that the elections are a lock for Trump and the Republicans. Far from it. Turnout is always and will continue to be the determining factor and it is essential that no matter what the polls and surveys say, you get out and vote, and for that matter, vote early. That’s precisely what I’ll be doing next Monday, when early voting begins in Florida. That said, looking at the big picture, this is clearly the best he’s been at this point in the race for Trump in any of his three presidential election cycles, it’s is the best he has been for the Republican Party in terms of partisan identification. In Gallup’s 21-year history leading up to an election, and in Florida in particular, the conditions are ripe for a historically significant red wave in that state. There are a number of analytical reasons for optimism on the right. The question comes down to execution. It doesn’t matter how a wave sets up. You still have to run to catch it.