Chance of winning the electoral college
Joe Biden has about a chance
Donald Trump is about a chance
2020 results
Our model is updated daily and combines state and national polls with economic indicators to predict election results across the country. To calculate likely electoral vote totals, we ran more than 10,000 simulations of the election. The probability of a tie in the electoral college is less than 1 in 100.
We keep a rolling average of national polls, which gives a sense of how the race is progressing. But winning the national popular vote is not enough to win the presidency.
In most states, one party enjoys a comfortable advantage, making it uncompetitive. These six states (worth 77 electoral votes) will be decisive. In 2016, Mr. Trump wore five out of six; in 2020, Mr. Biden won them all.
Which states are crucial for each candidate?
Key states do not have the same importance. Some are taller and others lean more toward one candidate or the other. Some are similar: for example, if a candidate wins Michigan, they are probably in the lead. in Wisconsin, Also. We calculated each candidate’s chances of winning if they lost these states.
Overall chance of winning
Electoral votes
Change from 2020
As polls and economic data change, our model updates its forecasts to reflect them. You can see how much the race has changed since the start of the campaign.
Methodology
The EconomistThe U.S. presidential election model estimates each major candidate’s chances of winning each state and the entire electoral college. Developed with a team of Columbia University academics, the forecast combines national and state-level polling with fundamental data on the state of the economy, historical voting patterns and demographics in each state to predict the probability of different race outcomes. To do this, the model constructs thousands of scenarios, each containing different vote shares in each state and different values for the impact of polling bias and other characteristics. The model is more likely to generate scenarios that better match the surveys and fundamental data it has been fed. The victory probabilities presented here represent the share of these scenarios won by each candidate. For more details on exactly how the model achieves this and the thinking behind its design, read the complete methodology.Sources: American National Election Studies; Cooperative Study on Congressional Elections; Five Thirty Eight; Gallup; MIT Elections and Data Science Lab; American Bureau of Economic Analysis; United States Census Bureau; 270towin.com; YouGov Forecast by The Economist with Andrew Gelman and colleagues at Columbia University
