Preview
The US elections hold immense importance as the country grapples with deep and lingering divisions. An unpopular incumbent president is seeking re-election against a likely opponent who faces 91 charges in four separate criminal cases. Congressional dysfunction has sidelined efforts to address the growing domestic and global challenges facing the country. At the same time, raging wars in Europe and the Middle East, as well as tensions between the United States and China, pose a growing geopolitical and economic challenge.
Politics today remains defined by a prolonged and pervasive malaise across much of the country; According to polling conducted by NBC since the early 1990s, January 2004 was the last time a majority of voters thought the country was moving in the right direction. According to the average of a recent RealClearPolitics poll, 68% of voters currently think the country is heading in the wrong direction. As a result, there is widespread alienation from both political parties, with record numbers of Americans now identifying as political independents.
Businesses should expect an even more volatile environment after the November election, as the current trend toward bipartisan populism means they cannot count on the support they have historically received from most Republicans and many centrist Democrats.
A November 2023 NBC poll highlights the American public’s dissatisfaction with business: 44% of respondents were very dissatisfied with the size and influence of big business, compared to 5% who are very satisfied – a plus historic low in media opinion. survey on the issue.
Businesses must have a strategy in place to adapt to the complex political environment of the 2024 elections and prepare for the likely unsettling consequences.
The 2024 presidential campaign
Trump and the Republicans
Although Haley remains Trump’s primary competitor after pledging to stay in the race in her concession speech following her defeat in New Hampshire, her path to the nomination appears rocky at best. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis’ decision to leave the primary race and support Trump, as well as South Carolina Senator Tim Scott’s support for Trump over his former governor, gave the former president a added momentum as his party increasingly unites around him as the presumptive nominee.
Haley’s performance in New Hampshire demonstrated Trump’s relative weakness among the more moderate wing of his party, as well as among independent voters, but she will have to win over a much more conservative group of voters who more strongly support Trump in his home state, Republican South Carolina. presidential primary on February 24. With that contest quickly followed by Super Tuesday on March 5, when the largest number of U.S. states hold primary elections, Trump is the prohibitive favorite to deliver an early knockout blow.
In fact, Trump spent the last year “campaigning” from the courthouses as an outsider fighting the establishment. What might normally have cursed a more traditional candidate worked to his advantage: The criminal and civil cases attracted enormous press attention and made Trump a victim in the eyes of most Republicans.
The Republican nominee in 2016 and 2020 will likely also be the nominee in 2024. Although some Republican critics of Trump say a conviction in one or more trials would jeopardize his nomination, the likelihood is very low that verdicts will be issued before the election day, November 5.
Two factors to watch out for
- Growing ideological tensions within the Republican Party. Although largely united on immigration and taxes, fault lines are evolving on foreign policy, government spending and the party’s tone on social issues. Haley’s support for Ukraine places her in her party’s minority camp, she has been sharply critical of the former president’s spending and debt policies, and she speaks about social issues with language less controversial — all positions widely supported by the traditional Republican establishment, but not embraced by the broader, working-class-dominated wing of the party energized by Trump’s candidacies over the past decade.
- Perceptions of Trump’s legal challenges among general election voters who are not reflexively on his side.Republicans recognize the risks posed by Trump’s legal troubles, but view President Biden as a deeply flawed candidate whose age and economic situation make him vulnerable. And if Biden were to step down, the GOP views Vice President Kamala Harris as the likely successor to run the campaign and views her as an even weaker opponent.
Biden and the Democrats
Given the current mood in the country, it’s no surprise that Biden has only a 39% approval rating as of late 2023. In fact, he has the lowest approval rating approval of every president, dating back to the 1970s. begins his fourth year in office. Biden scores particularly poorly on his handling of the economy as well as on crime and immigration — issues of particular concern to swing voters.
Despite lukewarm support within the party, Biden faces only token opposition on his path to re-election. The president has suffered a significant erosion of support among some of his strongest supporters, including young people and people of color. He also performed poorly with moderate and independent voters who played a key role in his victory over Trump in 2020.
A look at November
The fundamental contours of the presidential race have changed even in the last 90 days: beyond his lead in national polls, Trump is clearly outperforming Biden in four of six swing states – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan and Nevada. The impact of third-party candidates at this point in the race remains unclear, but their role in the election will be analyzed in the comments in the coming months.
High inflation over the past two and a half years (although it has eased recently) has arguably led to a significant decline in support for Biden, with prices rising an average of 19% since 2019. While wages have increased increased during this period, they have not kept pace with the rate of inflation until recently.
Nowhere has the rising inflation rate had more of an impact than on the cost of purchasing food: a basket of groceries that cost $100 in 2019 now totals more than $125.
There are signs, however, that the mood has started to improve, with the University of Michigan’s consumer confidence index jumping by a near-historic 28% since November. The S&P 500 and Dow industrials also hit new highs in recent days and retail spending in December beat expectations.
ANNEX
The 2024 electoral college map
Biden will likely begin the general election favored to win 226 electoral votes, compared to Trump’s 235. The remaining six states (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin) with 77 electoral votes will likely determine which candidate wins the 270 electoral votes required to win the White House.