Pennsylvania Senate elections remain close
A new survey from Emerson College Polling/RealClearPennsylvania finds that 48% of voters support former President Donald Trump and 48% support Vice President Kamala Harris for president in the Keystone State. Half of voters (50%) expect Harris to win, while 49% expect Trump to win.
The U.S. Senate elections in Pennsylvania are also close: 47% support Democratic incumbent Sen. Bob Casey, while 45% support Republican David McCormick; 8% are undecided.
“Casey leads among voters under 50, 53% to 37%, while McCormick leads among voters 50 and older: 51% to 43%,” noted Emerson Executive Director Spencer Kimball. College Polling. “The women beat Casey by 11 points, 52% to 41%, while the men beat McCormick by eight points, 50% to 42%.”
Voters were asked which presidential candidate they thought would be best given their personal financial situation. A majority of voters (51%) think Trump is the better candidate, while 44% think Harris is the better candidate based on their financial situation in Pennsylvania.
- Democrats think Harris is better for their personal finances, 86% to 10%, Republicans think Trump is better, 91% to 6%, and independents break for Trump, 50% to 38%.
The priority issue for voters is the economy (50%). Sixty percent of voters believe their economic situation is worse today than it was five years ago, while 22% believe it is better and 18% believe it is no different .
- A majority of Democrats (39%) think their situation is better, 32% worse, and 29% think it is no different. A majority of Republicans (84%) think it’s worse, as do a majority of independents (65%).
On the issue of fracking, 50% trust Trump more to handle the issue, while 39% trust Harris more. Eleven percent do not trust either candidate.
Gov. Josh Shapiro holds a 47% approval rating, while 35% disapprove of the job he is doing as governor. Thirty-five percent disapprove of Shapiro and 18 percent are neutral.
President Biden holds 38% approval of the job, while 54% disapprove of the job he is doing and 8% are neutral.
Methodology
The Emerson College Polling/RealClear PA survey was conducted September 27-28, 2024. The sample of likely voters in Pennsylvania is n=1,000. Polls have a credibility interval, similar to the margin of error (MOE) of a survey, by +/-3 percentage points. The datasets were weighted by gender, education, race, age, party registration and region, based on modeling of likely voters in 2024 Turnout modeling is based on metrics from the U.S. Census, exit polls, and voter registration data.
It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, have higher credibility intervals as the size of the sample is reduced. Survey results must be within the score range of the survey, and with a 95% confidence interval, a survey will fall outside the score range 1 in 20 times.
Data was collected by contacting cell phones via SMS to Web (phone list provided by Aristotle) and an online voter panel provided by CINT. The survey was offered in English.
All questions asked in this survey with exact wording, as well as full results, demographics, and crosstabs can be found under Full Results. The Pennsylvania investigation is funded by RealClear Pennsylvania.