Predicting 2024: the main economic and political trends explored by Ruchir Sharma and Prannoy Roy
Investor and author Ruchir Sharma, together with economist and psephologist Prannoy Roy, have drawn up a road map of major global events and changes expected to shape 2024. Ten significant trends, spanning various economic and political areas, have been predicted by these experts.
Democracy at the crossroads
The first prediction makes 2024 a crucial year for democracy. An unusually high number of elections are expected around the world, which could lead to a surge in anti-incumbency. This trend is expected to be fueled by the low popularity of many Western leaders.
Financial Concerns Amid a Pandemic
Second, Sharma and Roy suggest that in an election year, politicians are likely to increase spending, which could inflate budget deficits already inflated by the pandemic, raising red flags for investors.
Immigration and economic downturn
Third, a global backlash against immigration is expected, despite the economic benefits it offers. This backlash could become a significant political issue. The fourth trend anticipates a slow economic downturn, the result of fixed interest rates, as opposed to a sudden collapse.
Emerging markets and declining influences
Europe and Japan top the resilience rankings, showing potential for economic rebound. The sixth trend, however, highlights China’s diminishing influence due to geopolitical tensions and a shrinking population. Emerging markets outside China – Mexico, India, Vietnam and Indonesia – could prove attractive to global investors looking to reduce their exposure to China.
Dollar decline and AI reality check
An accelerated decline in the US dollar constitutes the eighth trend. The ninth trend warns of high expectations versus reality in the AI sector, as companies struggle to effectively monetize AI.
Political agendas impacting the film industry
Finally, the impact of political agendas on the film industry is leading to a slower recovery of movie theaters. Sharma points out that trends don’t necessarily correspond to the calendar year and that a mix of contrarian and predictable trends often shapes the future.
