These surveys were conducted from August 30 to September 8, 2024, among likely voters in each state, with margins of error ranging from +/-4 percentage points in Colorado, Minnesota, Nevada, Wisconsin, and Maryland to +/-2 percentage points in Florida, Texas, and Pennsylvania. Responses from likely voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia have margins of error of +/-3 percentage points.
Results do not include responses from voters who were initially undecided and were asked to choose which candidate they were leaning toward. Our likely voter criteria include all registered voters who say they are very likely to vote in the November 2024 general election. Our likely voter screening question ranges from 1 to 10, where “1” means an individual will definitely not vote in the November 2024 presidential election and “10” means an individual will definitely vote in November. Respondents who respond that they have a score of “8” or higher are considered likely voters. For more information on our 2024 methodology, see here.
