This year, dubbed the “year of super elections” by international observers, has seen a significant rise of right-wing and far-right parties across the world, while traditional ruling parties have suffered notable setbacks.
More than 70 countries and regions are holding key elections this year, two-thirds of which have already concluded, with results revealing a shift in voter sentiment driven by pressing economic and social issues such as inflation and immigration, which resonate deeply with the public and directly influence election outcomes.
Analysts warn that this trend adds new layers of uncertainty to the domestic political landscape of individual countries and to global governance.
MAJOR SETBACKS FOR THE RULING PARTIES
During the first half of the year, many traditional parties or government coalitions around the world unexpectedly lost power in elections, attracting widespread attention.
In India, the ruling party has fallen short of expectations, which could complicate its ability to govern. The final vote count for the lower house of the Indian parliament, announced on June 5, showed that while the National Democratic Alliance led by the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won a majority of seats, the BJP itself saw a significant drop in seats compared to the previous election and failed to secure a majority on its own.
As a result, the BJP had to form a coalition government with other parties, posing potential challenges to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s new term.
The results of the South African elections, announced in June, also revealed a similar trend. The ruling African National Congress (ANC) won the largest number of seats in the National Assembly, but failed to secure a majority. This is the first time since the end of apartheid in 1994 that the ANC’s seat count has fallen below 50%.
In France, the political landscape has transformed into a three-party divide between the left, the center, and the right. In June, French President Emmanuel Macron dissolved the National Assembly and called early legislative elections. After the second round of voting in early July, the ruling centrist coalition, along with a left-wing alliance, managed to prevent the far-right National Rally from becoming the largest party in the National Assembly.
However, with none of the three blocs having won an absolute majority and the ruling coalition only ranking second in terms of seats, France’s political future remains uncertain.
In Britain, former Prime Minister Rishi Sunak called a snap election in May, hoping to reverse his party’s declining popularity. But the July results saw the Conservative Party, in power for 14 years, suffer a crushing defeat. The main opposition Labour Party capitalized on public discontent with the Conservatives and won a decisive victory in taking power.
ECONOMY AND LIVELIHOODS AS KEY FACTORS
The decline of the traditional ruling parties reflects the general dissatisfaction of voters with the country’s economic situation. Economic and livelihood issues, which have a direct impact on voters, have become key factors in the elections.
Globally, geopolitical tensions resulting from the Ukrainian crisis and the renewed Israeli-Palestinian conflict have disrupted trade and supply chains, leading to soaring food and fuel prices in some countries and heightening public concern and anxiety.
In India, unbalanced economic growth is a major cause of the ruling party’s weaker-than-expected election results. Unemployment remains high in the country and wealth gaps continue to widen.
According to a recent report by the World Inequality Lab at the Paris School of Economics, by the end of 2023, the richest 1% of India’s population will hold 40.1% of the country’s wealth, the highest concentration since 1961.
South Africa’s economy, which was booming with an annual growth rate of more than 5% after the ANC came to power in 1994, has stagnated over the past decade. In 2023, the country’s economic growth slowed to 0.6%, down from 1.9% in 2022. The economic slump, combined with high unemployment, an electricity crisis, rising wealth inequality, and high crime rates, has led to a sharp decline in support for the ANC.
In Europe, geopolitical tensions, slowing global economic growth and falling consumer confidence continue to raise concerns about the eurozone economy. Economists remain cautious about Europe’s economic outlook for the second half of the year.
According to polls conducted by the UK-based research firm Focaldata, “improving the economic situation” was one of the main concerns of voters in the European Parliament elections held in early June. Analysts note that in this context, right-wing and far-right parties with nationalist and populist platforms have managed to expand their electoral base by capitalizing on public concerns about the economic situation.
RIGHT-WING PARTIES ON THE RISE
The rise of right-wing and far-right forces has become increasingly evident in election results in various countries and regions, particularly in Europe.
The mainstream parties are seen as having failed to address economic and immigration issues, said Kalicharan Veera Singam, a senior analyst at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, adding that the rise of far-right parties can also be attributed to growing “disillusionment” with the mainstream parties, he said.
In the European Parliament elections in June, while the centre-right European People’s Party and the centre-left Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats retained their positions as the first and second largest groups in the Parliament, the influence of right-wing and far-right forces increased.
Far-right parties in countries including France, Germany and Italy have outperformed ruling parties in European Parliament elections, signaling a significant shift to the right in the European political landscape.
Voters’ concerns about immigration were a key factor influencing the outcome of the European Parliament elections, according to Politico.
The refugee crisis has allowed far-right responses to migration to find growing support across the European Union (EU), said Ariadna Ripoll Servent, professor of EU politics at the University of Salzburg.
Marta Lorimer, a professor at Cardiff University, pointed out that the resurgence of far-right forces did not happen overnight. “The success of the National Rally in the European elections shows both the party’s ability to win the loyalty of a strong core of voters – and to win over new ones – and the extent to which the far right has become normalised,” she said.
Analysts warn that this shift to the right in the European political spectrum could introduce more uncertainty into EU policies on immigration, aid to Ukraine and the ecological transition.
