US, China closely monitoring Taiwan elections

More than 19 million voters in Taiwan will go to the polls on Saturday to decide whether the ruling Democratic Progressive Party should win an unprecedented third consecutive presidential term or whether a change in leadership is necessary.

The traditional DPP-Kuomintang duopoly is being challenged this year by the emergence of former Taipei Mayor Ko Wen-je and his Taiwan People’s Party. With a legislative majority also at stake in these elections, there are fears of a hung parliament, which could hamper policymaking and herald a return of the notorious clashes between feuding lawmakers.

As China escalates its rhetoric over its claims over Taiwan, global observers view these elections in Taiwan as highly crucial for security in the Asia-Pacific region, at a time of tense relations between the United States and China.

Local voters, however, are mainly concerned about the outgoing DPP’s uneven political record. This comes against a backdrop of stagnating wages in the face of continued high inflation and rising property prices and rents.

“In a two-way presidential race, it’s easy to frame it as a binary, dichotomous, de facto referendum on Chinese policy. When there’s a three-way race, that can’t be as effective a framing,” he said. Wen-Ti Sung, non-resident member of the Global China Hub of the American think tank Atlantic Council.

“That’s why I talk about change versus continuity, because it allows more variables related to national-level political issues to enter more into the equation. That to me is the main effect of Ko Wen -I,” he added.

Some of the most common concerns that have emerged during pre-election rallies and debates include lingering resentment toward incumbent President Tsai Ing-wen. controversial rollout of locally made Covid vaccines at the height of the pandemic and criticism over a broader lack of transparency.

These issues have helped boost Ko’s popularity, positioning himself as a political outsider. Ko chose Cynthia Wu, the eldest daughter of a prominent business family, as his vice presidential candidate.

“In particular, younger voters, who generally do not have strong partisan affiliations, may care more about who can offer solutions to the long-standing problems of low wages and high housing prices, who have not improved significantly during the past DPP and KMT administrations. said Jing Bo-jiun, a senior fellow in Taiwan studies at the University of Oxford.

The last official salary data show that the regular average monthly earnings of full-time Taiwanese employees increased by about 2.2% in October compared to last year, while overall inflation was more than 3% that same month.

“This could be one of the main reasons why TPP’s Ko Wen-je is popular among the young population, who hope that this non-traditional politician can propose new policies to improve their lives,” Jing added.

With Tsai stepping down due to term limits after serving two full terms, Ko will face the DPP’s presidential candidate this year: Tsai’s current vice president, Lai Ching-te. He named Hsiao Bi-khim – most recently the Taiwanese envoy to the United States – as vice president.

If Lai and Hsiao win the Jan. 13 vote for Taiwan’s presidency, it would be the first time a political party has remained in power for more than two consecutive terms since Taiwan introduced direct presidential elections in 1996.

The DPP duo will face Kuomintang presidential candidate Hou Yu-ih and vice-presidential candidate Jaw Shaw-kong, who is a prominent local television personality and talk show host. Hou was previously director general of the Taiwan National Police and current mayor of New Taipei City, the municipality that surrounds Taipei City but not the capital.

“There is arguably a more anti-establishment streak among younger voters, who see both the KMT and DPP as old, ineffective and even corrupt party machines. Ko’s stronger support among those in their 30s and younger is a good indicator.” said Kevin Luo, an assistant professor of political science at the University of Minnesota.

At the risk of receiving this support, the TPP was in talks with KMT over alliance to field a team less hostile to China. This plan, however, collapsed significantly on live television before the nomination deadline at the end of November, when the two parties could not agree on the leader of the joint list.

This has raised fears that the vote for change could be split even for the parliamentary elections, perhaps even leading to a hung parliament.

“As far as relations with China or the United States are concerned, my concern would be that they provide an opportunity for mixed messages from Taiwan, an opportunity that China could try to exploit,” said Timothy S . Rich, professor of political science at Western Kentucky University.

“Overconfidence in U.S. support, coupled with a hostile legislature, would not only make it more difficult to respond to a growing security threat from China, but could also lead to miscalculations,” he added. .

Chinese President Xi Jinping declared to his American counterpart Joe Biden that Taiwan has always been the “the most important and most sensitive” problem in Sino-US relations when they met on the sidelines of the APEC leaders’ summit in November.

“The reunification of the motherland is a historical inevitability,” Xi said in his speech. New Year’s Speech 2024according to a CNBC translation.

Biden has pledged to defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion, which angers Beijing.

Former Speaker of the United States House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan in 2022, becoming the highest-ranking U.S. official to visit the island in more than two decades. His trip is one of the reasons why communication between the two major world powers stopped before a provisional recovery only a few months ago.

China has never relinquished its claims to Taiwan – which has been autonomous since China’s nationalist party, or Kuomintang, fled to the island following its defeat in the Chinese civil war in 1949.

China’s Taiwan Affairs Office called the elections on the self-governing island a choice between “peace and war, prosperity and decline“.

The election comes as China has stepped up its military activities in the Taiwan Strait and other neighboring waters while Beijing insists on its claims to sovereignty over an island it considers its own.

Taiwan’s DPP-led government has often accused Beijing of meddling in the vote, either through military intimidation or co-opting Taiwan’s economic elite due to its economic dependence on China.

“Peace has no price and war has no winners,” the DPP’s Lai said at a pre-election news conference in Taipei on Tuesday. “China has always interfered every time there are elections in Taiwan, but this time is the most serious.”

A few weeks before the elections at the end of December, China suspends tax benefits on 12 imports of chemical compounds from Taiwan in retaliation for what Beijing considers a violation of the cross-Strait trade agreement on services.

The timing of China’s investigation has led Taiwanese government officials to conclude that Beijing’s goals are more political than economic.

“This election will not be won because of any specific policy or even cross-Strait relations,” said Charles Wu, assistant professor of political science at the University of South Alabama.

“This provides an opportunity to see whether Taiwan’s citizens would still be willing to let the DPP govern the country for the next four years.”

Correction: The story has been updated to accurately reflect former U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan in 2022.