
Taiwan is preparing for a momentous election.
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I-Hwa Cheng/AFP via Getty Images

Taiwan is preparing for a momentous election.
I-Hwa Cheng/AFP via Getty Images
TAIPEI, Taiwan — Nearly 20 million voters will go to the polls on January 13 in Taiwan in a presidential election that analysts say it will be ‘crucial’ for the future of the Asian island and its relations with the United States and China.
Here is a brief guide to understanding the issues.
1. What is Taiwan and how does it campaign?
Taiwan is an island (technically, a main island and a collection of smaller islands) slightly larger than the state of Maryland, located about 100 miles from mainland China.
The body of water separating them is the Taiwan Strait, and the term “cross-strait” is often invoked to refer to relations between Taiwan and China.
Only 13 countries in the world recognize Taiwan as a sovereign nation. But for around thirty years, the Asian island has been self-governed by a democracy resulting from decades of military rule. This young democracy is now cherished by its citizens.
In the 2020 election, nearly 75% of eligible Taiwanese voters cast ballots, and Taiwan’s civil society is often ranked as the most open or freest in all of Asia.

A supporter wears small Taiwan national flags on his hat during a Kuomintang (KMT) election rally on January 4.
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Taiwan is known for its colorful voting culture. Lev Nachman, a political science researcher at National Chengchi University in Taipei, likened it to “a circus at the Super Bowl,” full of campaign meals and rallies in local parks.
“Everyone grows up learning what it was like when there were no elections,” he told NPR. “And I think it’s memory that gets people to vote.”
2. What do the colors represent?
The two major political coalitions, known as green and blue, generally represent opposing perspectives on the central question of how to get along with China.
The Democratic Progressive Party (or DPP) is currently the ruling party. Its presidential candidate is incumbent Vice President Lai Ching-te (also known as William Lai).

Taiwanese Vice President Lai Ching-te in April 2023.
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Taiwanese Vice President Lai Ching-te in April 2023.
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Generally speaking, the DPP wants to assert a stronger Taiwanese identity and argues that Chinese aggression can be mitigated by deepening partnerships with other nations. Lai’s choice as his running mate, Hsiao Bi-khim, a former top Taiwanese diplomat in the United States, is seen as a nod to the importance of that relationship.
The current presidential candidate of the opposition Kuomintang (or KMT) party is New Taipei City Mayor Hou Yu-ih. Hou has framed this election as a choice between war and peace and argues that greater diplomatic and economic interaction with Beijing can maintain the peace.

KMT presidential candidate Hou Yu-ih shakes hands with supporters during an election campaign on January 4.
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KMT presidential candidate Hou Yu-ih shakes hands with supporters during an election campaign on January 4.
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This year, a third party called the Taiwan People’s Party (or TPP) also entered the race, featuring party founder and former Taipei Mayor Ko Wen-je.
The TPP presents itself in turquoise – the hybrid of green and blue – as an alternative to two-party domination, and that message has appealed to some young voters. Throughout this campaign, Ko has expressed his preference for engagement with China, which is why some analysts have also placed him in the pan-blue camp.

Ko Wen-je greets his supporters during an election campaign event in New Taipei on January 2.
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3. Why is China so important to Taiwan’s elections?
To answer this question, let’s start with a little history.
Toward the end of the Chinese Civil War in the late 1940s, Mao Zedong’s Chinese Communist Party drove out the nationalists led by Chiang Kai-shek. The latter group then withdrew and took command of the island of Taiwan.
This Taiwan government claimed to control all of Greater China, including the mainland as well as Mongolia, while China claimed to control all of Greater China, including Taiwan.
To date, the official name of Taiwan is the Republic of China (ROC) – not to be confused with the official name of China, which is the People’s Republic of China (PRC). You will often hear the acronyms ROC and PRC used when legal or diplomatic clarification is required.
China now has one of the most powerful armies in the world. Its ruling Communist Party (CCP) has never officially governed Taiwan, but it has nonetheless long considered Taiwan to be part of China.
Generations of CCP leaders – including current President Xi Jinping – have vowed to “reunify” Taiwan, by force if necessary.

A large screen broadcasts a television news report on Chinese military exercises encircling Taiwan, in Beijing in 2022.
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NPR will be covering this election closely. Listen All things Considered every day here or on your local member station for more coverage.
While Taiwan’s leaders face many domestic problems in this election: relatively low salaries, high real estate prices, energy securityan aging population, etc. – relations between the two shores are often the elephant in the Taiwanese political room.
The threat of war with a larger neighbor and its much larger army still simmers.
4. Where does the United States fit into all this?
The January elections will also have political implications for the United States.
The United States officially adheres to what it calls “the one-China policy, which recognizes China’s claim to Taiwan, but considers Taiwan’s sovereignty to be officially unstable. However, in recent years, the rivalry between the United States and China has encouraged many people in Washington (on both sides) to show support for Taipei in order to stand up to Beijing.

Nancy Pelosi received the Order of the Auspicious Clouds with Special Grand Cordon – Taiwan’s highest civilian honor – from Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen during her 2022 visit.
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When Nancy Pelosi, then Speaker of the House of Representatives, visited Taiwan in 2022, as the highest-ranking US official to visit the island in 15 years, China sharply increased military exercises over of the Taiwan Strait in response.
While the United States has attempted to be strategically ambiguous about what it would offer Taiwan in the event of a military invasion – President Biden’s statements aside – if China appears to be escalating its threat, the United States could show its hand more.
Taiwan also has a highly developed economy and is a hub for several key industries. Chief among them is the manufacturing of semiconductors, crucial elements of computer chips. The Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation (TSMC) alone manufactures more than 90% of the most advanced processors.
A major disruption to Taiwan’s de facto sovereignty could cripple global supply chains and put billions of dollars of businesses around the world at risk.
Overall, the United States would also have a deep interest in the continued success of China’s only language democracy – which is also a trading partner – in the face of growing autocracy in the region and around the world.
Emily Feng contributed to this report.