The foreign policy community in Washington clearly leans in favor of the DPP. The pro-US party has held the presidency for eight years as the Trump and Biden administrations forged closer ties with Taipei. DPP candidate Lai Ching-te, also known as William Lai, is the current vice president. His running mate, Hsiao Bi-khim, has been popular in Washington since 2020 as Taiwan’s special envoy. The DPP emphasizes democracy and freedom in a way that resonates in the United States.
So while a DPP victory would be hailed as an ideological rebuke to Beijing, I wonder if a KMT victory this time around wouldn’t be a strategic reprieve for Washington. With wars in Europe and the Middle East, American power is dangerously strained and historically thin. The temporary reduction in cross-Strait tensions that would accompany a KMT victory could give Washington a window – if politicians are willing to seize it – to strengthen US military deterrence.
Focus on the current elections: maintaining Taiwan’s sovereignty is one of the few fixed priorities of the United States erratic foreign policy. Letting this strategic island fall into Beijing’s hands would devastate the alliance structure and Washington’s military position in Asia. The Defense Department says China is the United States’ most formidable rival and that Taiwan — just 100 miles from China’s coast and with a population of about 24 million — is the United States’ ally. United that China threatens most constantly.
The United States failed to meet the challenge. Admiral John Aquilino, head of the US Indo-Pacific Command, said in 2022 that China is carrying out “the largest military build-up in history since World War II”. Australian And British civil servants accept. Meanwhile, the Pentagon budget is almost flat as a share of U.S. gross domestic product, and well below Cold War levels. The military-industrial base is under pressure to supply Ukraine with its war with Russia even as the Biden administration attempts to fuel Israel’s war by Hamas and deter war with Iran.
The missile shortage is particularly serious because reports the Wall Street Journal, referring to a simulation that “America would run out of all-important long-range anti-ship missiles in the first week” of a war against Taiwan. The United States has given free rein to its ability to secure Taiwan’s political independence. that he guaranteedmore or less, since Japan lost control of the island in 1945 — only to fall into doubt.
Amid the deteriorating global situation, a better performance by the KMT, represented by Hou Yu-ih, the former mayor of New Taipei City, could be a blessing in disguise for the United States. China, or at least the ruling Chinese Communist Party, will never concede sovereignty over Taiwan. Probably the best way to prevent a “unification” war is to postpone it, ideally indefinitely, through fictions such as the “one China” policy, in which the United States hides its official status. of Taiwan while maintaining its de facto independence. The KMT, hit by Xi’s crackdown in Hong Kong in 2020, has been forced to take the Chinese threat more seriously and would not be in a political position to hand over store to China even if it wanted to.
On the other hand, a third consecutive DPP term could allow Beijing hawks to argue that Taiwanese nationalists are so firmly in control of the country that any resolution other than one involving the use of force is unrealistic. And they could make this argument at a time when America’s deterrent power is weakened more than it has been in decades. The DPP, despite some laudable reforms, failed to fundamentally change the island’s serious defense deficiencies during its eight years in power. As Michael J. Lostumbo observes, “a large portion of Taiwan’s defense budget is spent on capabilities that are neither viable nor powerful.” Taipei is counting on the US Air Force and Navy to come to its aid.
The DPP is the favorite to win next week. Lai led throughout the campaign. But with a third in the mix and a recent survey showing With just three points ahead of Lai, anything is possible. Taiwanese voters will certainly consider the global situation when voting, and they are best placed to judge their own national interest.
Whatever their decision, avoiding the absorption of Taiwan by China will remain a top priority of American foreign policy. If the DPP wins as expected, the long-term trend of convergence between Washington and Taipei will continue. This convergence can help ward off a Chinese attack if the threat is still distant and Taiwan and the United States diligently strengthen their defenses in the years to come.
But if the threat is imminent, a KMT shake-up could buy the United States crucial time to restore its eroded military deterrence. It is on this element of deterrence that Taiwan’s independence ultimately depends – its ability to choose its own leaders.
