The situation is becoming more and more dire. In the past three months alone, the Philippines and China have been involved in multiple dangerous clashes in the South China Sea, including over the Second Thomas Shoal. Both sides have took an uncompromising position on the maritime dispute, thereby increasing the risk of unwanted conflicts.
To make matters worse, rising tensions between the Philippines and China have coincided with a deterioration in relations between the two global superpowers. Elections next year, premiere in Taiwan and later in the UNITED STATEScould further fuel tensions in the region.
02:41
Marcos Jr says China interested in South China Sea atolls near Philippines
Marcos Jr says China interested in South China Sea atolls near Philippines
As Marcos rightly pointed out, we need a “paradigm shift” that allows each side to preserve its fundamental interests while instituting sufficient safeguards to avoid unwanted conflict.
When it comes to the geopolitical landscape of the Indo-Pacific region, the past year has been troubling. Soon after, apparently promising encounter Between US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the Group of 20 summit in Bali last year, the two superpowers quickly returned to an antagonistic relationship.
China has cried foul over a new round of US sanctions against its strategic industries, particularly semiconductor companies. Meanwhile, the Pentagon has doubled down on military cooperation with a host of countries around China as part of an “integrated deterrence” strategy. The Biden administration has simultaneously strengthened several regional alliances, including the trilateral alliance. United States-Japan-South Korea And Australia-UK-US (Aukus) groups.
Additionally, the United States has increased its engagement with non-aligned countries such as India and Vietnam to counter China. In response, Beijing accused the United States of trying to contain China’s rise by adopting a Cold War mentality.
U.S. President Joe Biden (center left) toasts with Vietnamese President Vo Van Thuong during a state luncheon at the Presidential Palace in Hanoi, Vietnam, September 11. Biden arrived in Hanoi after attending the Group of 20 summit in India. Photo: EPA-EFE
At the same time, China has taken a more assertive stance in adjacent waters, particularly in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea. Emboldened by its deepening alliance with the United States and growing support from like-minded Indo-Pacific powers, the Philippines has redoubled its efforts. its own patrols in disputed areas and has promised to fortify its installations at points that China also claims.
The result is a dangerous escalatory dynamic that has seen Chinese ships use water cannons against Philippine supply ships, including one with the Philippine military leader on board, while a Chinese fighter jet came within 10 feet of a U.S. B-52 bomber flying over the South China Sea. But we could be facing an even more geopolitically perilous year.
First, elections in Taiwan could end up consolidating the position of pro-independence elements. Latest polls suggest that the Democratic Progressive Party William Lai Ching-te and former Taiwanese representative to the United States Hsiao Bi-khim is still in the lead.
Next year will also see a particularly heated US election, likely pitting incumbent President Biden against former President Donald Trump. Despite partisan polarization, a bipartisan anti-China consensus has emerged in Washington.
This appears to reflect broader public opinion in the United States, with four in five Americans having an unfavorable view of China and two-thirds viewing China as a “critical threat” in a Gallup poll earlier this year. As a result, Biden will likely come under increasing pressure to maintain a hard line on China to fend off his hawkish Republican rivals.
The United States also risks facing growing pressure to stand with Taiwan and the Philippines. China warned the Philippines against building structures during the period Second Thomas Benchbut Manila insists on full sovereign rights on the bench, based on a 2016 arbitral tribunal ruling.
If the Philippines continues to build permanent structures on the shoal and insists on U.S. military assistance to push back China, a military confrontation in the region would become a real possibility. With anti-China sentiment As the country gains ground in the Philippines, particularly in the run-up to the 2025 midterm elections, Marcos is under increasing pressure to take drastic steps to strengthen his country’s claims in the South China Sea.
05:22
Why the South China Sea conflict remains one of the region’s most pressing problems
Why the South China Sea conflict remains one of the region’s most pressing problems
However, all parties have sufficient strategic maturity and responsible statesmanship to avoid disaster. This was demonstrated during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit, on the sidelines of which Xi met with his American And Filipino counterparts to discuss de-escalation mechanisms.
Needless to say, the West should not underestimate China’s determination to strengthen its claims in adjacent waters. However, Beijing should understand that small claimant states, like the Philippines, are not left behind. In addition to establishing strong safeguards and communication channels, it is necessary for the United States and its regional allies to pursue firm but productive diplomacy with China.
The ultimate goal should be a mutually acceptable compromise on high-stakes issues, coupled with a commitment to sustainable de-escalation, particularly in the South China Sea. Otherwise, the world’s most dynamic region could descend into cataclysmic conflict.
Richard Heydarian is a Manila-based scholar and author of Asia’s New Battlefield: US, China and the Struggle for Western Pacific, and the upcoming Duterte’s Rise.