2024 will be a monumental year presidential election year. But in terms of politics, it will be State the governments that see the most action over the next 12 months.
When state legislatures begin their new sessions in the coming weeks — 37 will go into session in January and nine more will follow in February — lawmakers will immediately dive into a host of big policy questions.
Some of these areas – like how to combat artificial intelligence and deepfakes – will be relatively new. For others, like how state governments can best address major labor shortages, lawmakers will pick up where they left off last year.
Meanwhile, in areas like abortion rights, it will be organizers who try to force measures on the November ballot, not lawmakers, who will take the lead.
“2024 will be an extremely important year as we think about what progress can be made at the state level,” said Jessie Ulibarri, co-executive director of the State Innovation Exchange, a group of state legislators that strives to advance traditionally progressive policies. .
Here are the top five issues and trends that experts expect to emerge at the state level in 2024.
Right to abortion
The right to abortion was a political boon for Democrats since the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, but these successes only occasionally took the form of state legislation.
Rather, Democrats have seen their biggest victories in promoting abortion rights over the past two years come in the form of state-level ballot measures — and much more. are on the horizon in 2024.
Abortion rights supporters have already made major progress in at least 10 states to put the issue on the ballot next year.
Groups are collecting signatures to let voters decide ballot initiatives in Florida, Arizona, Nevada, Montana, Nebraska, South Dakota and Missouri. In Maryland, New York and Colorado, legislators – who control the amendment process in these states – have already succeeded in placing on the 2024 ballot measures that would enshrine the right to abortion in the constitutions of these states .
“2023 was the first year since the Dobbs decision, and what we have seen across the board, regardless of political context, is that the American people are ready, willing and able to organize to advance the reproductive freedom and access to abortion care in red and red. blue states are the same,” Ulibarri said. “And this will remain a consistent effort next year, when many more states will consider ballot measures.”
Abortion rights advocates also warn that 2024 will see efforts from conservative lawmakers, lawyers and judges in states such as Ohio, Kansas And Michigan has block the implementation of adopted initiatives by proposing new anti-abortion bills and threatening legal action.
AI and deepfakes
Advances in artificial intelligence and deepfake technology have grown exponentially in the last year alone.
state legislatures didn’t follow.
This delay is particularly evident when it comes to bills aimed at combating political deepfakes, leaving potential threats unchecked heading into a presidential election year.
As of 2023, only three states have passed laws to try to address the effects of AI on political campaigns. But the few pieces of legislation in place — some focused on disclosure, others on prohibition — will likely serve as models for other states in the future.
While most states have yet to release details of pre-filed bills for upcoming state legislative sessions, state political observers predict many will attempt to resolve the issue next year.
“This is clearly an important issue,” said Daniel Weiner, who as director of elections and government programming at the nonpartisan Brennan Center closely follows the challenges presented by AI and deepfakes .
“Start gradually, do what you can, see how it works,” Weiner said, describing how he thinks state governments should approach the legislation.
Tim Storey, CEO of the National Conference of State Legislatures, added that these issues “are going to get a lot of attention and energy” in 2024. “This is going to be a major theme in the 2024 sessions,” he said. he declared.
It’s also likely that states will look more seriously at regulating other areas of AI and deepfakes, he said.
“It’s happening so quickly with AI that states know they’re going to have to put regulatory guardrails in place around the integration of AI, both in terms of personal life and commercial life.” , Storey said.
Labor shortage
In critical areas such as educationmedicine, health care and criminal justice, states have endured in recent years a glaring shortage of workers.
To find, attract, and retain essential workers like teachers, nurses, and corrections officers, states have attempted to rely heavily on legislation that encourages—or at least alleviates barriers—for people seeking to enter or stay in these areas.
State invoices In recent years, we have focused heavily on student debt forgiveness And salary increases.
As baby boomers continue to retire and the effects of a wave of pandemic-driven workforce departures remain significant, states – blue, red and purple – should keep their foot on the ground. accelerator in this area during their 2024 legislative sessions.
“It’s one of those issues that affects every state,” Storey said. “The workforce issue will continue to come into play,” he added, predicting that bills in future sessions could focus on changing requirements for accreditation, licensing of practice and, in certain cases, diplomas for certain professions in demand.
In 2023, lawmakers in some states have also attempted to address the labor shortage. by loosening child labor law.
Although this trend may continue in some states, some experts predict that at least a handful of states will instead focus on strengthening child labor protections in 2024 to ensure their legislatures do not address shortages by allowing children to enter the labor market.
“Unfortunately, we’ve seen some states this year try to repeal child labor laws, and other states are going to do that next year,” Ulibarri said. “And many states will actually seek to enshrine stronger protections to prevent children from being put into the workforce too early.”
Immigration
In border states, governors and lawmakers from both parties have increasingly taken matters into their own hands in the face of historic numbers of migrants trying to cross into the United States.
In just the past few weeks, Democrats and Republicans have taken huge — and sometimes controversial — legislative steps to tackle this problem.
Texas Governor Greg Abbott, a Republican, recently legislation signed allow police to arrest migrants who cross the border illegally.
Days earlier, Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs, a Democrat, asked President Joe Biden more than 500 million dollars to reimburse the state for border security expenses, as well as reassigning National Guard troops that could help reopen a key border post in the state.
Immigration falls primarily under the jurisdiction of the federal government. But if inaction from the White House and Congress continues into 2024, border states will continue to try to do something about it, experts predict.
“There are a lot of states where they’re done waiting for Washington to resolve these issues and looking at them individually, which is difficult,” Storey said. “But it’s one of those problems where a state-by-state solution is more complicated.”
Meanwhile, the decision of Texas and other red states to continue the bus Recent migrants arriving in blue cities like Chicago, New York and Denver have led states far from the border to also try to solve the problem.
“It’s not just about California, Arizona and Texas anymore. This is really a problem that everyone understands is on our doorstep,” Storey said.
Growing tensions
Few political observers in the state have seen the historic rise in expulsions, impeachment threats and punitive bills passed by the ruling party targeting opposition members in 2023.
But they will do it in 2024.
“I think we will continue to see significant tensions within the legislative bodies until we deal with the governments situation,” Ulibarri said.
In Tennessee, Republican lawmakers excluded two Black Democrats in the State House in unprecedented votes earlier this year, drawing national attention and accusing them of racism. In Montana, Republicans in the State House voted to ban Democratic State Rep. Zooey Zephyr, State Rep. First of all transgender legislator, to participate in debates in the House. And in Oregon, state Democrats decided ban 10 Republican lawmakers to run for reelection after participating in a six-week walkout to protest guns, abortion and other issues.
With the bitterness that accompanies a presidential election year sure to continue to fan these flames at the state level, there is little hope that this trend will fade, experts say.
In Wisconsin, where Republicans have threatened to dismiss a liberal state Supreme Court justice who won her election in April by 11 percentage pointsas well as the state’s top elections officialPresident of the Republican Assembly, Robin Vos denied to exclude any action against either person during the next session.
“We are seeing an era of partisan legislation,” Storey said, referring not only to politics but also to punitive measures.
“I think we’re going to stay in this mode for a while longer.”
CLARIFICATION (January 2, 2024, 6:21 p.m. ET): This article has been updated to reflect that the State Innovation Exchange is made up of state legislators.
