Over the past decade, the Oceania region has moved from what many thought was a backwater of global politics towards much greater centrality.
A significant driver of Oceania’s greater prominence in global affairs is climate change. As one of the most vulnerable regions to climate change, voices from Oceania have gained greater traction in global forums such as the United Nations and the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. Partly this is due to a new type of leader that has emerged in Pacific Island countries: confident, assertive, and determined that their region’s interests are not sidelined by those of larger countries.
It is also due to the importance of the region’s huge maritime territory for global environmental and sustainability interests. The 8.5 million square kilometres of ocean under the responsibility of Pacific nations comprises the largest maritime region in the world, performing a major part of global oceans’ production of oxygen and absorption of carbon dioxide. The fisheries and ocean floor minerals in Oceania are of growing importance to a crowded, urbanising planet. And the Pacific is playing a central role in the connectivity of the Americas and Asia.
Many Pacific Island leaders have welcomed the new prominence of Oceania in global politics.
Geopolitics is the third major driver of Oceania’s growing importance. A key turning point was the 2018 APEC Summit in Port Moresby, where China not only built the Summit venue and surrounding infrastructure, but walked away having signed up most Pacific Island countries to its Belt and Road Initiative. Since then, Beijing has provided significant development aid for infrastructure, as well as security training for Pacific nations. China is Oceania’s largest export market. The United States, Australia and New Zealand, alarmed by China’s interest in the region, have each increased their attention and development assistance to Pacific nations.
Many Pacific Island leaders have welcomed the new prominence of Oceania in global politics. They have pointedly rejected Australian and American overtures to rely more on “traditional” partners and less on China. Then-Secretary General of the Pacific Islands Forum Dame Meg Taylor said in 2019, “If there is one word that might resonate with [Pacific Islands] Forum members when it comes to China, that word is access. Access to markets, technology, financing, infrastructure. Access to a viable future.”
There are reasons why the additional attention and resources are important for Pacific Island countries. They are highly affected by global economic conditions, and most were badly affected by the Covid downturn. Most are not progressing against the UN Sustainable Development Goals, and several are actually going backwards. The Asian Development Bank estimates that Pacific Island nations require an additional $2.8 billion in infrastructure investment to 2030, and an additional $300 million a year to support climate change adaptation.
But there are downsides to the competition to engage with the Pacific. Driven by geopolitics, Australia and the United States are in direct competition for influence with China. There is a danger that the heat of competition will increase domestic discord in Pacific countries, especially if aid is channelled directly through politicians. Recent riots in Honiara, sparked by concerns about Beijing’s influence on local politicians, are a stark warning to the rest of the region.
Australia should realise that its own geopolitical fears of growing Chinese influence in Oceania are not the only interest it has in the region. Concerns about the impact of geopolitics on domestic stability and cohesion, and on regional solidarity, should be of crucial long-term importance to Canberra. Continuing to provide support to bolster democratic processes and the integrity of government institutions is in Australia’s and its Pacific neighbours’ shared interest.
Across Oceania there is a huge shortfall in educational and employment opportunities for the region’s young people.
Australia should also lean into processes that establish and maintain high standards of development cooperation governance – for all development partners. As the Lowy Institute’s Meg Keen and Georgetown University’s Alan Tidwell have argued, this can be achieved through encouraging multilateral development banks to engage and collaborate with regional institutions. It will not be easy – there are few incentives within Oceania or among external development partners to achieve greater coordination of development assistance to the region.
A third imperative for Australia is to continue to invest in building the wellbeing and opportunities for Pacific Island societies. Melanesia’s population aged under 24 is 44% of the total – compared with a global proportion of under 24s of 24%. At the same time, youth unemployment is 23% compared to the global average of 12.6%.
Across Oceania there is a huge shortfall in educational and employment opportunities for the region’s young people. Rapid urbanisation has moved large numbers of people from rural, subsistence lifestyles to townships with little infrastructure or opportunity. The Pacific Australia Labour Mobility scheme partly addresses this need – but only partly. Education will open up so many more opportunities while building the governance and service delivery capacities of Pacific nations.
This is where Australian schools, TAFEs and universities need to lean in. Universities have an obligation to help build the educational capacity of Pacific partners, as well as to provide more opportunities for people from Oceania to study in Australia.
The University of Melbourne established the Melbourne Oceania Institute in early 2024, and over the next two weeks we will be visiting Samoa, Solomon Islands and Fiji, to explore with education providers, government agencies and industry how else we can support. There is a role for government here, too. Canberra should consider expanding the very successful Australia Pacific Training Coalition past vocational training to include a schools and universities network.
Increasingly, Australia’s future will be determined by its status as part of Oceania. It should be thinking hard about how it can actively shape that shared future as much as possible.
