A change from a few years ago has persisted: more Republicans identify as working class or lower class than Democrats.
Democrats are more likely to identify as upper-middle or middle class.
That’s according to a new Gallup poll. Forty-six percent of Republicans consider themselves working or lower class, compared to 35 percent of Democrats. Sixty-two percent of Democrats identify as upper-middle class or middle class, and 53 percent of Republicans say the same.
Deeper into the investigation: Survey data comes from self-identification and not from factors such as education level, occupation or income. Economic experts differ on the specifics of what constitutes the working class, but in general, these are people who are not college educated (approximately 62% of the country) and/or those who receive an hourly wage rather than a salary.
Gallup survey data began to show this shift in 2022. When the same survey was conducted in 2019, 46% of Democrats identified as working class or lower class, compared to just 34% of Democrats. Republicans. In contrast, 65% of Republicans described themselves as upper middle class or middle class and 54% of Republicans did so. Self-identification has fluctuated in this direction, but from 2002 to 2019, Republicans generally identified more as upper- and middle-class than Democrats — the opposite was true for Democrats identifying as working-class and middle-class. lower at a higher rate than Republicans.
Zoom out: What are the broader trends in working class politics?
This shift was precipitated by another trend: Working-class voters do not identify strongly with either party.
Stephen L. Morgan, a professor at Johns Hopkins, said in a 2017 report that working-class voters began to no longer identify solidly with either the Democratic Party or the Republican Party when President Barack Obama was in office.
“Even before the 2016 election cycle began, conditions were unusually ripe for a Republican candidate to appeal to potential working-class voters, particularly those who had not voted in recent presidential elections but could be mobilized to vote,” Morgan said.
The center-left think tank, the Progressive Policy Institute, conducted a survey with YouGov on the politics of working-class voters (defined in the report as those without a four-year college degree). Report finds working class trusts Republicans more on economy, natural security, immigration and crime, while trusts Democrats more on climate change, clean energy, access abortion and respect for elections.
Forty-seven percent of the working class said they wanted a federal government involved in the economy primarily by protecting free markets, while 34 percent said they wanted a small federal government with fewer taxes and less spending. Nineteen percent responded in favor of a large federal government involved in wealth distribution.
As for which party the working class trusts to put the interests of the working class first, respondents were almost evenly divided: 38% said Democrats and 37% said Republicans. Twenty-two percent of respondents answered neither.
A plurality of survey respondents also said they would prefer the Democratic Party spend taxpayer dollars more efficiently rather than expand government programs. As for what they want the Republican Party to do, they said they would like the Republican Party to cut spending and raise taxes on the rich.
Of those surveyed, 50% said their household income was less than $50,000 per year and 27% said it was between $50,000 and $100,000, with the remainder either preferring not to say, or declaring a household income greater than $100,000.
“In the short term, the policy preferences of working-class voters are likely to be shaped by pressing issues such as high prices and illegal immigration,” William A. Galston of the Brookings Institute wrote of the poll. “In the longer term, however, a party that combines moderation on cultural issues with support for government programs that would improve the upward mobility prospects of the working class would likely improve its performance in this key part of the electorate. »
Galston also highlighted specific policies that some members of the working class have taken issue with, such as student loan forgiveness. Fifty-six percent of working-class voters said they opposed student debt relief because they felt it was unfair to those who don’t earn a college degree. Working-class voters generally do not have a four-year degree and therefore will not have student debt, but could face higher taxes due to student loan forgiveness policies.
Write for The New York TimesDavid Leonhardt analyzed a handful of reports on the working class and observed what makes some working-class voters bristle: elitism.
“Most professionals now vote for Democrats, which is a dramatic change from decades past,” Leonhardt said. “Most working-class voters vote Republican, in part because they view Democrats as an elite party dominated by socially liberal and secular college graduates. »
Leonhardt noted how the Republican Party still faces challenges with the working class in terms of economic policy, but the conservative populist response “is an effort to show that Republicans understand the struggles of Americans and want to help them.”
Much ink has been spilled over whether or not there has been a significant shift among working-class voters — some don’t think the Republican Party has the stronghold that others think.
“I think the claim that the Republican Party is the party of the working class is insincere at best and, more likely, poor political direction and rebranding exercises,” John Russo, visiting scholar at the Kalmanovitz Initiative for Labor and the Working Poor at Georgetown University, said NPR in 2021. He pointed out that Biden won the majority of voters making less than $50,000 a year in 2020 and that Trump won the majority of voters making more than $100,000 a year.
Others point to areas where the working class might vote differently from the message of Democratic politicians. Ruy Teixeira, a researcher at the American Enterprise Institute, wrote for The liberal patriot that working-class voters are less ideological, have economic struggles and, in his words, are “more focused on material concerns.”
Patrick Ruffini, a Republican pollster and co-founder of Echelon Insights, said the current dividing line is whether or not a person has a college degree.
“Since college degrees translate into higher incomes, the Republican Party now has more people in the bottom half of the income distribution than ever before, while it bleeds votes from the wealthiest,” said Ruffini in Policy. “To be clear, this is not happening because the economic message has changed. »
Instead, Ruffini posits, it is because of a different political shift. “Worker populism gives Republicans the opportunity to build a broader party, based on the working and middle classes. »
