The Vanderbilt Unity Project and the latest Vanderbilt Unity Index of American Democracy show that the country continues its trend toward more polarization, through the end of 2023. down almost three points compared to the start of the year.
The VUI captures the degree of unity among Americans by collecting and analyzing data including public ideological engagement, congressional polarization, and presidential disapproval. Reflecting months of war between Israel and Hamas, the multiple trials of former President Donald Trump and the kickoff of the 2024 presidential election season, the fourth quarter 2023 VUI index was 46.48 on a 100-point scale.
This recent drop in VUI is due to two key elements of the measure: data shows that the number of Americans identifying as extremely liberal or extremely conservative has increased, and that the number of Americans who strongly disapprove of President Joe Biden increased. The final quarter of 2023 also showed us something not surprising: The 118th Congress was even more polarized than before.
This decline could continue through 2024, as struggles for control of local, state, and national governments continue.
VUI data for the fourth quarter of 2023 shows:
- The percentage of Americans identifying as strongly liberal or strongly conservative increased 4 points, from 24% in the first quarter of 2023 to 28% in the final quarter of 2023.
- The percentage of Americans who strongly disapprove of the current president increased from 40% in the first quarter of 2023 to 44% in the last quarter of 2023.
- The congressional polarization score for the 118th Congress has remained constant – 88.55 – through 2023; this is an increase of one point compared to the fourth quarter of 2022.
The overall level of unity has not returned to levels recorded during Trump’s tenure: during the third quarter of 2020, the VUI was 40.16, the lowest score on record. The highest score ever recorded was 72.33, recorded in 1991, when Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev resigned and the Cold War ended.
The VUI is made up of five inputs from publicly available survey data:
- Strong presidential disapproval
- Political and ideological extremism
- Social trust
- Political and social unrest
- Measures of Congressional Polarization
Together, these various measures capture fluctuations in Americans’ overall confidence in their political institutions. It does not seek to measure public reactions to particular policies. One of the five units measured by the index, political and social unrest, is typically updated every two years but could not be updated at the end of this quarter. Going forward, the index will update the Congressional Polarization Score every quarter rather than at the start of a new Congress to better reflect the mood on Capitol Hill.
More information on the The Vanderbilt Unity Index is available online.
