Americans could convict a former president of a felony next year – and then vote to send him back to the White House as commander in chief and self-described dictator for his first day. Or, they could reelect a deeply unpopular incumbent of an advanced age whose vice president stands poised to become the first female chief executive in the history of the United States.
Americans could continue a backlash against the Supreme Court decision undoing guaranteed abortion rights and vote to enshrine the right to abortion in states across the country. Or, the high court could make it almost impossible to get the drugs necessary for a medication abortion – which is the most common type of termination, and state legislatures could impose criminal penalties on women who have abortions.
Ukraine could have a mouse-that-roared moment, galvanizing its outmatched forces and tapping allied support to quash Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of his country’s western neighbor. Or, Putin could take advantage of international exhaustion with the ongoing war, acquire Ukraine and move further to begin rebuilding the old Soviet empire.
The brutal war in Gaza could come to an end, with hostages released and the Israeli government coming to terms with Palestinians that lead to a future of peaceful co-existence. Or, both populations could be decimated by war, and the state of Israel itself could face its most serious existential threat since its establishment in 1948.
When Americans ring in 2024, they’ll be welcoming what is shaping up as one of the most consequential years in modern history, analysts say. Some results are almost certain to be unprecedented. Things may not end well. And since Americans don’t agree on what’s good or bad for the country, any ending might lead to public unrest.
“The least probable situation is that a typical scenario plays out,” says Lee Miringoff, a veteran pollster with the Marist Institute for Public Opinion in Poughkeepsie, New York. “It’s like 1968,” when the country underwent widespread unrest and killings of leaders, Miringoff adds. “There’s too much pressure on the system for it to not bust loose.”
Miringoff cautions that he’s not predicting assassinations, like those against Robert F. Kennedy and Martin Luther King in 1968. But historians and political analysts say that, as in that tumultuous year, so much is on the line in the United States and in the world, with international borders, longtime social policy and democracy itself at stake.
Abortion rights could go either way, analysts say. A handful of states have already moved to protect the right to an abortion, and more are planning referendums on it next year. But other states are moving in the other direction – Missouri Republicans this month introduced a bill allowing homicide charges against women who have abortions, for example.
And the Supreme Court has agreed to hear a case on the ability to obtain the abortion drug mifepristone. If the high court decides that the drug violates the Comstock Act, which prohibits the mailing of “obscene” materials, it could mean health care providers and pharmacies – even those in states where abortion is still legal – won’t be able to get it, says Audrey Blondin, a Connecticut-based lawyer who holds a master’s degree in public health and has been active in reproductive rights.
“If the Supreme Court rules that the Comstock Act is valid, and outlaws the medication abortion through the mail, that takes precedence,” says Blondin, who teaches at the University of New Haven. “You can pass all the laws you want [but] that’s it – it’s the end of the line.”
Cartoons on the 2024 Election
Aside from the abortion question, the 2024 elections overall are going to be nation-shaking by definition, analysts say, with the country poised to go in one of two radically different directions, depending on the results.
The U.S. presidential election is already historically unique in that an incumbent is running against another de facto incumbent, says Barbara Perry, a presidential scholar at the University of Virginia’s Miller Center.
Add to that the fact that former President Donald Trump is facing a combined 91 criminal charges in federal and state courts, President Joe Biden has approval rating percentages in the high 30s or low 40s, both men are showing signs of their elderly status, and the Supreme Court could end up having a definitive say in who is on the ballot, who gets to vote and who is allowed to serve – and the year gets even more dramatic.
“Any one of these scenarios is unprecedented,” Perry says. Even in the run-up to the Civil War in 1860, “the question wasn’t, ‘Will there be a dictator?'” Perry says, referencing Trump’s statement that he intends to be dictator on his first day in office if he is elected next year. “It was, ‘Will we be able to stay as a union?’ It has consequences for the Constitution, but it wasn’t, ‘Will we retain this regime or this type of government?’ We’ve never really come down to that.”
Trump, for example, could get convicted but nonetheless win the election – without being able to actually vote for himself. He could then try to pardon himself, leading to a major court challenge – the resolution angering about half the country and adding to a growing lack of confidence in the integrity of the country’s top arbiter of differences.
Or, Trump could lose the election – with or without being convicted of a crime – and a good chunk of the country would still feel aggrieved, believing (irrespective of facts) that the election was rigged against him.
And if the unpopular Biden limps into reelection weeks ahead of his 82nd birthday, it will raise questions about whether he’ll finish his second term, analysts say. Another disruptive possibility – and one that would also result in the historic ascension of America’s first female president.
It’s also possible, Miringoff notes, that neither man will be his party’s nominee. Both men are showing signs of aging, he notes, and Trump’s legal problems could lead GOPers to find another candidate – which itself could lead to a major showdown with Trump loyalists at the Republican National Convention.
“We may not have the team we now think is going to be on the playing field in November,” Miringoff says.
Whoever is elected will have to grapple with historic conflicts overseas – especially in Eastern Europe and the Middle East – that could spell trouble for world democracy while putting added pressure on the United States as its own democratic institutions are under assault, analysts say.
Steven Levitsky, a Harvard government professor and co-author, with Daniel Ziblatt, of the book “How Democracies Die,” warns against making apocalyptic predictions about 2024. But he says the threat to American democracy is “very serious,” with the saving grace being that Americans are not likely to be complacent.
“No matter who wins the 2024 election, Americans who care about the country and care about our democracy are going to have to get up and fight for a better country and a better democracy,” Levitsky says.
“I cannot think of another candidate in a competitive system since World War II – anywhere in the world – who has been as openly authoritarian as Trump” in his pledges of how he will govern, Levitsky says. But “neither outcome [of the election] is going to be the outcome that puts us on an irreversible track,” he says. “Politics is never irreversible.”
The United States may well find its way. But in 2024, it won’t happen without a fight.
