The US election campaign is in its final weeks voters heading to the polls on November 5 to elect the next president.
Early voting is already happening in a number of states, including battlegrounds like North Carolina and Georgia.
Less than three weeks before the elections, Democratic Vice-President Kamala Harris and former Republican President Donald Trump are competing to convince undecided voters.
However, the popular vote does not decide the winner. Instead, it determines which electors will represent each state on the ballot. Electoral Collegewho chooses the president.
To win, a candidate must obtain 270 of the 538 electoral votes up for grabs. Electoral College votes are distributed among states based on their relative populations.
Who is in the lead?
According to Daily Election Poll Tracker from FiveThirtyEightHarris is currently leading in national polls and has a 2.4 percentage point lead over Trump.
In July, President Joe Biden, a Democrat, left the presidential race and endorsed Harris as his replacement. Since then, the vice president’s ratings have increased from lower numbers under Biden.
But the race remains close. five thirty eight election predictions suggests Harris is favored to win 54 times out of 100 while Trump wins 46 times out of 100.
Which states could swing the presidential election?
swing states, also known as battleground states, can influence the outcome of a national election.
One of the defining characteristics of a swing state is its ambiguous political leanings, where no party has overwhelming support.
This year, closely watched states include Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
In the 2020 presidential election, Georgia flipped from Republican red to Democratic blue after nearly three decades of Republican voting, and in Arizona, Democrats won by a slim margin of 0.3 percentage points.
Polls show Trump and Harris in a tight race in swing states. In these states, polls are more important in determining the winner than national polls because it is the electoral college and not the popular vote that chooses the president.
What happens if Harris and Trump end up tied?
There are a total of 538 electoral votes. To win the election, a candidate must obtain 270.
Given the nature of the distribution of electoral votes, specific combinations of states could lead to a 269-vote tie. Such a scenario is possible, but unlikely.
If no candidate wins at least 270 electoral votes, a contingent election is held in which the United States House of Representatives decides the winner.
Each state’s delegation in the House would have one vote, and a candidate must receive a majority (26 out of 50) of the state delegation’s votes to win.
The U.S. Senate would then choose the vice president, with each senator having one vote and a simple majority (51 votes) required to win.
How do surveys work?
Election polls predict how the population might vote by surveying a sample of voters. Surveys are most often conducted by telephone or online. In some cases, it is by mail or in person.
Survey trackers, which aggregate a number of surveys, are weighted based on a number of factors, such as the sample size of the survey, the quality of the interviewer, the date the survey survey was carried out and specific methodologies used.
How accurate are the polls?
Polls are never 100 percent accurate. In the United States, in the 2016 and 2020 elections, opinion polls underestimated the popularity of Republican candidates. Although polls for the 2022 midterm elections are more accurate, many remain skeptical of the poll results.
Part of the reason for the inaccuracy of polling in recent years is the ability to reach voters. Polls are often conducted via telephone surveys; however, fewer people are inclined to answer calls. Non-response bias is another reason for inaccuracy: for example, in recent years, Trump voters have chosen not to respond to polls. Additionally, changes in voter turnout have affected the accuracy of polls. For example, in 2020, voter turnout was much higher than expected.
A margin of mathematical error is implicit in polls because they use small, selected groups of people to verify the choice of a larger population. This margin of error in US polls indicates the range within which the actual result is likely to fall. With a sample of 1,000 people, the margin of error is approximately plus or minus 3 percent.
Many polls conducted before this year’s presidential election showed the difference in support between Harris and Trump within a margin of error.