No, Maryland is not about to go from blue to red.
Vice President Kamala Harris carried the state by more than 20 points, and Democrats held the open U.S. Senate seat and were on track to maintain their 7-1 advantage in the state’s House delegation. representatives – their top policy priorities this year. They also participated in local school board elections for the first time in recent memory and did quite well.
But former President Donald Trump received a higher percentage of the vote in Maryland this year than in 2020, just as he did in 48 of the 50 states. And he appears to have improved his numbers in all 24 jurisdictions across the state.
In 2020, President Biden defeated Trump 65% to 32% in Maryland and won Baltimore City and nine counties. This year, Harris is ahead 60% to 37% and has won eight jurisdictions — although the margin is expected to widen after more mail-in ballots are counted.
“Maryland is not an island, so these national trends are going to come here,” said Mileah Kromer, a pollster and director of the Institute of Politics at the University of Maryland, Baltimore County.
The question is whether any of the political developments that put Trump over the top will have a lasting effect nationally or in Maryland — whether there’s something the state’s Republicans can build on or that state Democrats need to worry about.
Population centers like Baltimore City and Prince George’s and Montgomery counties will remain Democratic powerhouses, as they have been for decades. But politics can be a game of thumbs and microtrends, and Maryland has red and purple jurisdictions and shaky legislative districts that worry political strategists.
Harris easily defeats Trump in Maryland; the rest of the country is still a question mark
“Maryland is bigger than the major blue and geographically centric counties that Maryland Democrats have come to rely on,” said Peter E. Perini Sr., a Hagerstown City Council member and former county Democratic chairman of Washington.
There were no public exit polls on Maryland’s vote this week, so it’s unclear whether some of the changes in the national electorate also occurred here. The Maryland State Board of Elections will release voting statistics for congressional and legislative districts in a few weeks.
Sometimes a single election can transform a region for a long time.
A prime example is Legislative District 6, centered in blue-collar Dundalk, Baltimore County. Before the 2014 election, the district had one Democratic senator and three Democratic delegates. But the delegation went all-Republican in 2014, the same year former Gov. Larry Hogan (R) was elected in a major upset, and there’s not much talk about Democrats trying to win back the district these days.
This development, many strategists believed, foreshadowed Trump’s rise in 2016, and particularly his appeal to working-class voters. The trend accelerated in this year’s White House elections, not only among white working-class voters, but also among black and Latino working-class men — a shift that some Democratic strategists find particularly concerning .
Paul Ellington, the former executive director of the Maryland Republican Party, said the GOP should learn from and build on this development, nationally and in the state. He said Trump, in his unconventional way, listened to the concerns of the American working class and crafted a message on the economy and other issues that appealed to them.
“Much like how Hogan went ‘all man’ in Maryland and cut into traditional Democratic districts, Donald Trump has done this, particularly with what we would call labor, with working men and women,” Ellington said. “For too long, Republicans have carried the water for chamber of commerce types, when in fact Maryland’s chamber of commerce types have probably split their donations between the two parties.”
Among the American electorate, economic nervousness proved to be a motivating factor, even though national statistics suggested the economy was strong and growing stronger. This attitude has also benefited Trump.
“The economy in front of them is the only one that matters to voters,” Kromer said. “People care about their shopping first and foremost. »
But even though Trump’s political strength in this election has created opportunities that Maryland Republicans could take advantage of in separate areas, the broader GOP will not succeed in the state as the Trump party. The Senate race, with the staunchly anti-Trump Hogan as the Republican nominee, “was the only race that was competitive,” Kromer noted.
Obviously, very smart people will be doing post-mortems and will have some real work to do on how the Democratic Party communicates with the people. I think there’s definitely going to be some soul-searching.
– Ken Ulman, Chairman of the Maryland Democratic Party
Maryland Democratic Party Chairman Ken Ulman acknowledged that there will soon be national discussion and analysis about what Democrats have done wrong and what they need to do better.
“Obviously, very smart people will be doing post-mortems and will have some real work to do on how the Democratic Party communicates with the people,” he said. “I think there’s definitely going to be some soul-searching.”
Part of this soul-searching will invariably focus on whether the party has become too “woke” and moved too far left – a topic that will occupy party leaders, activists, donors and policy pundits in a foreseeable future, particularly at the national level. Maryland Democrats will not be immune from this debate.
But Perini said voters in Maryland’s outlying areas also want to see signs that their government cares about them, suggesting that recent cuts to state transportation funding, which will kill or block key highway projects, could hurting Democrats and rural and suburban voters.
“You have to understand how people feel when they take these projects off the books,” Perini said. “And how people feel is how they vote. We just have to honor people, at least for what they feel. »
Although April McClain Delaney, the Democratic candidate in the 6th District congressional race, appears headed for a close victory and many party strategists worry about her fate, Perini predicted that her approach would resonate with voters from the ideological and economic sectors. and a geographically diverse district.
“I loved his phrase, ‘common sense and common ground,’” he said. “From day one, this has been his approach to campaigning and I believe it will be his approach to governing. So there is a road map for campaigning in areas that are not very blue.”
“I think we are an exception”
The good news for hand-wringing Democrats is that the 2026 election cycle has already begun, which means plenty of political operatives and activists will be gearing up.
“As far as I’m concerned, the 2026 elections started (Wednesday),” Perini said. “And if people don’t strategize, they’re already a day late.”
Alsobrooks makes history in Senate race, as Hogan can’t repeat his magic
Democrats can also take comfort in knowing that the party that doesn’t control the White House often makes significant gains in midterm elections — even though politics in the Trump era is more volatile and unpredictable than ever.
Ulman said he feels good about the infrastructure the state Democratic Party has built for the 2024 elections and that it will be maintained for 2026, when all state elected officials, all state legislators State and most county officials will be on the ballot. While Democrats were surprised when Hogan decided this spring to run for Senate, his high-profile candidacy required them to quickly mount a strong operation, while presidential election years are typically sleepier in Maryland.
“Together, our coordinated campaign has been actively campaigning in all 24 jurisdictions, and that’s really going to help us in 2026,” Ulman said.
The party leader also said the problematic environment in 2026 could benefit Democrats, particularly if Trump decides to dramatically overturn the federal government, which is a major employer and economic engine in Maryland.
“My hunch, after 30 years in politics, is that 26 will be a very good cycle for Democrats,” Ulman said. “But we have to prepare for the worst. I think Marylanders are going to have many reasons to be frustrated with our federal government.
Adam Wood, executive director of the Maryland Republican Party, did not respond Thursday to a message seeking comment on the 2024 election results and what they might portend for 2026.
Whatever small gains Trump may have made in Maryland this year, the state has its own unique set of political trends and scenarios.
“I think we are an outlier,” said Sen. Cory V. McCray (D-Baltimore City). “We are in a state where we have a black governor and a black senator. We defy what the country says.
But, McCray acknowledged, pointing to the presidential result, “the voters were saying something.”
