On February 28, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy held a long -awaited meeting with US President Donald Trump in order to persuade him to continue American support for Ukraine. The meeting was probably not what the Ukrainian head of state expected.
Trump and US vice-president JD Vance reprimanded Zelenskyy in front of television cameras to be “disrespectful” and for refusing to adopt their initiative for a cease-fire with Russia.
It is obvious that Zelenskyy will not return to Washington during the presidency of Trump. It is also obvious that the pressure of the United States on Ukraine will increase considerably in the following weeks and months, while Trump pushes kyiv to make significant concessions to Russia in exchange for peace.
Even before the White House force test, the Trump administration questioned Zelenskyy’s legitimacy and pushed presidential elections. Holding an election precipitated for the sole purpose of eliminating the holder, however, could mean a disaster for the country.
Before the large -scale invasion of Ukraine Russia, The approval ratings of the presidency of Zelenskyy were As low as 28% and 11% for its party. Russia’s large -scale invasion sent Ukrainians to join the president and his popularity has reached a record. However, in the past two years, its approval ratings have been a constant drop. According to electionConfidence in Zelenskyy increased from 54% in April 2024 to 49% in January – not as low as Trump claimed, but far from his 90% note in May 2022.
Several factors have contributed to the decline in the popularity of Zelenskyy, including rampant corruption under its administration and the growing fatigue of the current war.
The Ukrainian President – well aware of his vulnerability – clearly said that he was not comfortable with competition. For him, the issues are raised because if it had to lose a re -election offer, he could face prosecution for corruption or various forms of retribution from his rivals. The polls already show that if the elections were to be held immediately, it would lose.
A formidable Zelenskyy challenger has already emerged: Valerii Zaluzhnyi, a four -star general who was commander -in -chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine until February 2024. The public confidence in him is among the highest and was held at 72% in January.
Although Zaluzhnyi was dismissed by the president on the heels of the failure of the Ukrainian counter-offensive in 2023, there was speculation that his popularity in Ukraine could also have been a factor. The general was sent abroad to serve as a Ukrainian ambassador to the United Kingdom – a position he still occupies.
So far, Zaluzhnyi has not declared the intention to run, although there is no guarantee that he would not change any minds. If it remains outside, other military personalities, such as Kyrylo Budanov, can intervene.
Budanov, Ukraine Intelligence Head, has a 62%public confidence rating. He recently disappeared from the public’s eyes after a year of high -level media. Rumors have spread that the Zelenskyy office planned to withdraw it, which led to his sudden retirement. But he could well reappear the countryside at first.
Boxing champion Oleksandr Usyk could become a potential black horse. In a country where a former actor has become president, a victorious athlete does not seem to be an unlikely competitor. Although he made no public political ambitions, he began to appear in the polls and his note is currently 60%.
Then there is former President Petro Poroshenko, who has low approval notes, but remains a dangerous rival for Zelenskyy. Since 2019, more than 130 criminal cases have been launched against him – including a betrayal for having approved a coal application program in the Donbas region occupied by Russia.
Poroshenko is a frank critic from Zelenskyy and does not hide his political ambitions. He has Travel in the United States And met Trump’s team. In February, when he tried to go to the Munich security conference, he was not authorized. He now faces sanctions imposed by the State on “national security reasons”, which include a freezing of assets.
The message of the sanctions is clear: Poroshenko will be eliminated from the presidential race before he even begins. In this context of perceived political persecution, other potential challengers have not come forward, being too afraid to run.
There has been more and more concerns about Zelenskyy management of opposition personalities, but so far, no strong public reprimand has been born from its allies. After the confrontation at the White House, European leaders expressed their support for him. This gave Zelenskyy a temporary boost at home, but we don’t know how long he could last.
In addition to political rivalries and bitter rewards, the Ukrainian political scene is also marked by continuous divisions within society. The war has intensified emotions and divided the country in the middle, creating a volatile situation.
Ultranationalists have not only influence among certain parts of the population, but are also autonomous as participants active in war. There is also part of the company that leans the pro-Russian and does not want the conflict to continue.
If an election is imposed abroad in this volatile situation, it could prove more catastrophic than the invasion of Russia or the loss of industrial Heartlands of Ukraine. The danger is not only that a third of the population would not be able to vote and the legitimacy of the elections could be in question.
The real threat is that the vote could ignite a fight of all against all before a single ballot. A holder who fears losing a re -election offer and political rivals which are hell to regain relevance can resort to the exploitation of societal divisions. Military and security agencies could be forced to act, which adds to a potentially explosive mixture.
If the presidential elections can dangerously polarize societies in peace – as we have seen in the United States – they can do much worse in wartime. An election precipitated in Ukraine which serves the political plans of a foreign power is certainly a recipe for disaster. A vote should take place once there is a sustainable ceasefire which allows all Ukrainians to vote without fear of the prospect of polarization and conflict.
The opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of Al Jazeera.
