Voters continue to rank President Joe Biden’s age and former President Donald Trump’s legal woes as the most compelling reasons to oppose him in November, according to new data from the latest NBC News national poll.
Respondents in the recent poll, conducted April 12-16, were asked about three potential vulnerabilities for each candidate ahead of the fall election.
For Biden, the idea that he “may not have the mental and physical health to be president for a second term” was the most compelling reason for 23% of registered voters. 17% of registered voters said their main complaint about Biden was that “millions of immigrants crossed our border illegally” during his presidency, and 16% chose the message that inflation has reached a “highest in 40 years, making it difficult to return home.” pay to cope with rising prices. 15% said “all of this” was very convincing.
For Trump, 20% of registered voters said the most compelling reason to oppose him was that he “faces four different criminal and civil trials for alleged wrongdoing, including multiple criminal charges related to attempts to overturn the 2020 elections.”
Another 14% said Trump “takes credit for his Supreme Court nominees taking away women’s right to abortion,” and 8% chose that he “wants to pardon those convicted of stormed the Capitol on January 6.
But there was a significant difference among respondents who said neither message was the most compelling: For Trump, 40% of registered voters chose that option, while 28% chose it for Biden .
A closer look at the numbers suggests they come from Republicans being less willing to recognize Trump’s vulnerabilities than Democrats are to recognizing Biden’s weaknesses (even though Democrats are preparing to vote for Biden at almost the same time). him in November).
Seventy-two percent of Republicans chose “none” of Trump’s potential vulnerabilities, compared to 34% of independents and 8% of Democrats.
For comparison, 54% of Democrats chose “none” of Biden’s potential vulnerabilities, compared to 21% of independents and 4% of Republicans.
In other words, only 25% of Republicans said there was a compelling reason to consider voting against Trump, compared to 42% of Democrats with Biden.
That’s indicative of how both parties approach their candidates, said Jeff Horwitt, the Democratic pollster who conducted the NBC News poll with Republican pollster Bill McInturff.
“The two parties are suffering from two different illnesses,” he said. “Where Democrats look inward and worry about what they see, Republicans are more willing to look beyond the really — from my perspective — major, major problems with their candidate.”
Yet it is clear that these supporters view the issue as a thought exercise, not one that generates a meaningful difference in how they will vote. In the NBC News poll, 92% of Democrats say they would vote for Biden over Trump, and 96% of Republicans say they would support Trump.
If given the option to support a third-party or independent candidate, 80% of Democrats remain with Biden and 76% of Republicans remain with Trump.
But such messages could cloud the mood of independents, 34% of whom say they will support a candidate other than the two major party nominees, as well as voters who support candidates like Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Cornel West or Jill. Stein. Voters who support these other candidates say they are more likely to change your mind before November.
Among independents, the largest group chose Biden’s mental and physical health as their top negative for Biden (29%), while a plurality (34%) chose “none” of the negatives for Trump.
Among those supporting third-party or independent candidates, 35% highlighted Biden’s mental and physical health, and 26% chose the inflation message. Regarding Trump, 26% chose his trials and 25% chose the message that he took credit for overturning Roe v. Wade, but 28% said none of the messages were compelling.
How those voters respond to those messages over the next six months could be key to deciding the election, Horwitt said.
“How can these two candidates appeal to these people who, right now, are turned off by both of them? He asked. “Can you make the case that the concerns about the other candidate are so great that it is no longer a choice between two evils, but rather a lesser of two evils?”
The NBC News poll of 1,000 registered voters nationwide — 891 contacted by cell phone — was conducted April 12-16 and has an overall margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
