If Donald Trump wins the next United States presidential electionsUkraine will not be a priority for him, which will increase the risk that Russia can win the war, said the famous Anglo-American historian and economist Niall Ferguson in an interview with NV on November 14.
“If Joe Biden runs against Donald Trump, there’s a 50 percent chance that Trump will win,” Ferguson said.
“So I think Democrats should really think about the wisdom of choosing Joe Biden as their nominee. He’s too old for this job, everyone knows that. (Vice President) Kamala Harris is not fit for this job, and that is also known.”
Ferguson also pointed out that if a recession occurs in the United States before the election, this probability would increase even more.
“This is the reality: no president has been re-elected after a recession in a hundred years,” adds the historian.
“And this could happen by November next year as rising interest rates will have a significant impact.”
He said that if Trump wins, “Ukraine will not be a top priority for him, his priorities will be domestic.” But unlike in 2017, in the new Trump administration, “there will be very few generals who will tell him not to change course.”
“That is why we, friends of Ukraine, must take into account that Trump can not only end his military and financial aid, but also seek a diplomatic solution beneficial to Russia. There will be obstacles in Congress , but we will have to reckon with the fact that he will try to do it,” Ferguson said.
That is why, he said, it is very important that Ukraine “wins within 12 months.”
“What does victory mean? Ideally, it could be defined as the return of all territories occupied by Russia, including those conquered in 2014. But this is a rather old-fashioned definition of victory, and it may prove unrealistic in the short term,” he said.
At the same time, Ukraine has already won in other aspects: it humiliated the Russian army, won the battle for Kiev, revealed the weakness of Russian forces and its economy. Ukraine also gained respect from the world that it did not have before.
“And (Ukraine has) also become a military power – one of the greatest military forces in Europe, as Henry Kissinger said. These are the victories that Ukraine must consolidate,” said the historian.
“My main advice is that Ukraine be ready to fight and talk at the same time. Keep fighting, but be ready to negotiate. As soon as negotiations begin with Russia, it will be more difficult for the Russians to escalate .”
For the full interview, see the latest issue of NV Magazine – No. 5, November 2023, now available for purchase on the NV.UA website.
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