The election results – the PTI won 93 of the 266 seats contested nationally, the PML-N 75 seats, the PPP 54 seats and the MQM 17 seats – are accompanied by significant controversy and uncertainty over the political future of Pakistan. On the one hand, the most likely scenario appears to be a coalition government that may struggle to muster the political strength needed to advance much-needed economic reforms and address serious governance and security challenges. On the other hand, several contenders have raised allegations of vote tampering that would call into question the credibility of a future government. PTI-aligned candidates in particular claim that delays in the final announcement of results are evidence of irregularities. Even before the elections it was clear that electoral playground was inclined against the PTI. The US State Department noted allegations of interference in the electoral process and called for a full investigation. In its preliminary report, Pakistan’s election watchdog, Free and Fair Election Network, note that there was transparency at the polling stations, but that it was compromised at the stage of counting and tabulation of votes.
Despite not winning the highest number of seats, the PML-N is now trying to form a coalition government with the PPP and MQM – with these parties together holding a near majority of seats, which is necessary to form a government. He also named former prime minister Shehbaz Sharif – Nawaz Sharif’s brother – to lead the coalition as the new prime minister. For its part, the PTI has announced its intention to form a government at the center as well as in the provinces of Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, but it is unclear with whom it will ally to obtain the majority required to form a government. It is more likely that PTI-aligned candidates will sit in opposition in the National Assembly, as the party has made it clear that it will not ally with either the PML-N or the PPP.
The people’s verdict
The victory of the PTI-backed candidates defies the expectations of political experts in Pakistan. It was widely expected that the PML-N would win and the PTI would lose the elections. At the heart of this projection was the relationship status between Khan and the powerful Pakistani military, which appeared to support the PML-N’s return to power and block Khan and his PTI.
Khan fell out with the military when his government was removed in a vote of no confidence in 2022, which he accused of being a regime change operation orchestrated by the military with the United States. His party has been in the crosshairs since May 9, 2023, when its supporters attacked military establishments across the country. Khan himself has been in prison since last year due to several cases accusing him of corruption and improper handling of classified information, which prevented him from campaigning for his party in the elections. Perhaps more importantly, ahead of the elections, the PTI was also denied its election symbol (a cricket bat) by the Pakistani Supreme Court, which was widely seen as part of a broader campaign aimed at to tilt the electoral balance against the party.
The fact that despite all these measures, PTI-backed candidates won such a large share is a remarkable result, making the 2024 elections one of the most important elections in Pakistan’s contemporary history. One way to read the vote is that the Pakistani people rejected the two traditional dynastic parties – the PML-N and the PPP – and embraced Khan’s populist and ambitious political agenda. Another way to read the result is that it is also a rejection of the political role of the military establishment, particularly its opposition to the PTI and the crackdown against the party since last year.
The findings also highlight Pakistanis’ dissatisfaction with the country’s overall trajectory and the electoral process which represents a solution to the challenges facing the country. According to Gallup, Pakistanis are deeply pessimistic about the country’s economic future They also question the fairness of the electoral process: before the elections, seven in ten Pakistanis said they did not have confidence in the honesty of the elections.
What happens next?
Much remains uncertain about government formation: it seems more likely that the PML-N will form a coalition government with the PPP and MQM. Khan announced from prison that the PTI would not join hands with either the PML-N or the PPP to form a government. The PTI is likely to form a provincial government in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, where it has won almost all provincial seats. He could also try to form a provincial government in Punjab, but will face strong resistance from the PML-N. Since the PTI candidates ran as independents, the party will face pressure from its winning candidates being poached by its rivals, especially the PML-N.
Even if the PML-N and PPP manage to form a coalition government in Islamabad, the PTI will be able to disrupt its functioning, perhaps through street protests, court cases contesting the election results and within the parliament thanks to its significant representation. The military establishment can try to contain any PTI agitation and allow the coalition government to get to work. The hybrid approach of the coalition and the military establishment working together can theoretically work, but it is structurally unstable, as it lacks a popular mandate, does not clearly define responsibilities, and risks provoking disagreements between the coalition government and the establishment.
It remains to be seen whether the military establishment can find a political solution to limit the deep anger of the PTI’s broad support base. The military may be inclined to take a narrow path toward a modicum of stability: backing a PML-N-led, PPP-backed coalition to begin negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), while conceding some space for the PTI – including potentially via Khan’s future release – to contain protests against the new political order. In the best case scenario, there will be economic stability and a lowering of the political temperature. It is certain that continued bickering and political machinations will dominate in the short term.
The economic challenges ahead for Pakistan
Pakistan also finds itself at an economic crossroads. Over the past six months, thanks to the IMF’s short-term bailout package set to end in March, Pakistan has returned to some fragile economic stability. Preserving this stability after the end of the program requires urgent steps toward a new IMF program. Such a program is necessary for Pakistan to manage between $25 billion and $30 billion in annual external debt. To this end, the new government must negotiate a vast multi-year IMF program. This will require the government to embark on a path of fiscal discipline, unpopular tax reforms, privatization of state-owned enterprises and withdrawal of energy subsidies, while securing support from the United States, China and the world powers. Gulf to the IMF.
Negotiating such a package will be a challenge for a coalition government led by PML-N’s Shehbaz Sharif as prime minister. Not only will he have to forge consensus within the coalition on the difficult policy adjustments required by the IMF, but he may also have to do so amid a strong protest from the PTI. If the PML-N takes the lead in economic policy, it will have to fill a serious credibility deficit due to the blockage of its former Finance Minister, Ishaq Dar, on the IMF reform proposals at the end of 2022 and in the first half of the year. of 2023. These concerns could be amplified by the dynamics of a coalition. Shehbaz Sharif nevertheless has experience in striking a deal with the IMF, which he did in June 2023 as prime minister by personally negotiating with IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva and sidelining Dar. In case the PTI is able to form a government, it would also raise similar concerns; the party has also resisted economic reforms in the past and has recently offered no clear stance on the economy. Khan also remains ambivalent by contacting the IMF.
Whatever the scenario, timing is crucial to preserving the hard-earned gains of the past six months. A delay in forming a government will make the transition to a new IMF program more difficult. But the rapid formation of a government that appoints a technically competent and empowered finance minister will encourage the IMF and Pakistan’s partners to act quickly to provide the assistance Pakistan needs to maintain the stability of its economy.
Implications for American policy
The United States, and indeed many countries interested in Pakistan’s stability, had hoped that the general election would provide an inflection point that would allow Pakistan to emerge from the all-consuming political crisis since the no-confidence vote against Khan in April 2022. Unfortunately, instead of resolving the crisis, the elections have created more uncertainty in Pakistan, and the credibility crisis facing the new government risks further polarizing Pakistani society. Ideally, the new government should focus on the twin economic and security crises facing Pakistan, but it is unclear whether it will have the policy space or political attention to address these challenges with strength.
The evolving situation in Pakistan will require U.S. policymakers to exercise caution in their dealings with the new government. They will also need to calibrate a response that takes into account domestic political tumult and democratic backsliding so as not to exacerbate the political and economic crisis or further destabilize the country. Finally, they will have to confront the consequences for U.S. security interests in a region of military leadership beset by greater controversies. Policymakers must be prepared that, when a government is formed, they will engage with political and military leaders who will have the precarious domestic political situation in mind rather than focusing on strategic challenges, including the fight against terrorism, Indian politics, strategic policies. stability and intensifying strategic competition between the United States and China.
