News headlines reporting Donald Trump’s victory in the Iowa caucus on January 15 give the impression of a far greater victory than should reasonably be gleaned from this first expression of American electoral opinion in 2024. Iowa is attracting attention because This is the first of the 2024 election primaries, but history also shows that he has predicted the ultimate winner only six out of 13 times since he assumed the role in 1972.
The last Republican candidate to win the Iowa caucus was George W. Bush in 2000.
Part of the reason is that Iowa, with just over 3 million residents, represents less than 1 percent of the U.S. population as a whole. Its voters are also much older, more rural, whiter (90%), more evangelical, and less educated than the United States as a whole. Although once a swing state, Iowa has been solidly Republican since 2016.
Those who voted for Trump were also a smaller, self-selected subset of this tiny population. Those supporting Trump made up 51% of registered Republicans who went to the polls on one of the coldest nights of the year. only 110,298 people.
Likewise, Trump’s margin of victory needs context. His vote share of 51% and margin of victory over Florida Governor Ron DeSantis of 30% are – as a large part of the press note – ” unprecedented “. But so is having a former president participating in the primaries and caucuses process. This hasn’t happened since Herbert Hoover ran and lost in 1940.
He always calls himself “President Trump” and introduces himself with his secret service details clearly visible makes Trump different from other candidates. Likewise, his reputation, notoriety and constant presence in news headlines over the past year have all contributed to his success in the Midwestern state. The result is therefore not a surprise to attentive observers of the process.
Even if Trump leaves Iowa in a strong position, there remains the possibility that former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley — who ran third in Iowa — could do well enough in New Hampshire and in South Carolina to continue the primary process as an alternative to Trump. But to do this, she would have to accompany Trump’s attacks against her with a more critical response to the former president’s record and reputation.
EPA-EFE/Justin Lane
Her reluctance to do so suggests to some that Haley is running for second place to be chosen as potential vice presidential candidate. A more likely explanation for his failure to attack Trump more harshly is his desire not to alienate his fanatical base in the hopes that they will inherit the Republican Party nomination due to the collapse of the current momentum of Trump for legal reasons (he currently facing 91 criminal charges) or other unforeseen events.
Biden wants Trump to win
Joe Biden’s response to the news from Iowa was visibly calm. He posted on X (formerly Twitter) that: “this election was always going to be you and me against the extremist MAGA Republicans (Make America Great Again). It was true yesterday and it will be true tomorrow.
This is also what Biden and his team want. Trump’s voting record in national polls is dismal. He lost the popular vote in 2016 And 2020 and the candidates supported by him did very poorly in the November 2018 and 2022 elections. midterm elections. On the other hand, polls pitting Biden against Haley or DeSantis show a clear improvement in the Republican Party’s prospects.
Not only has Trump shown minority liking among Americans nationally, but Democrats are counting on Trump’s legal troubles to negatively impact his national standing as the year progresses. As the Notes from the New York Times “A mountain of public opinion data suggests voters would turn away from the former president” if he were indeed convicted of a crime.
It is for this reason that Trump is employing every possible tactic to obstruct and delay any legal judgment until after the primary process or, ideally, until the November general election itself. He hopes that by securing the Republican nomination, he can portray any lawsuits against him as partisan interference in the U.S. electoral process, and in doing so, he hopes to avoid legal liability.
In contrast, Democrats view such a process as their best chance to overcome Biden’s unpopularity with the electorate.
Negative ratings
Regardless of how the Republican Party’s nominating process plays out, Iowa should not be confused with the support Trump enjoys nationally. Trump’s current national approval ratings amounts to 42%. While these results are slightly better than Biden’s (41%), the key point here is that the two likely contenders in the November election are closely matched in their general lack of appeal to the American population as a whole.
That’s a very different picture than the one painted by media coverage of the Iowa caucus. The media must therefore be careful not to exaggerate the idea of Trump’s success. It would be a mistake to conclude from this result alone that his political resurrection and eventual electoral triumph are in any way inevitable.
