In 2024 US presidential election approaches, the political landscape is more polarized than ever, and the outcome will likely depend on voters in eight key states. According to the institute’s latest assessments Cook’s Political ReportThese states remain highly competitive and could be key to determining whether the vice president Kamala Harris or former president Donald J. Trump crosses the crucial threshold of 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency.

Also read: Guide to Understanding the Electoral College
The battle for electoral votes
If both candidates can win the states where they currently have strong, likely or weak support, the race will come down to seven swing states and one district where the outcome is far from certain. Kamala Harris would need 44 electoral votes in those swing states to win, while Donald Trump would need 51 electoral votes.
Also read: How the next President of the United States will be elected
The 8 Key States Where the US Election Will Be Won or Lost
Let’s take a closer look at the eight states that could swing this highly-watched election:
Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes)
2020 Margin: Biden +1.2%
2024 Polls: Harris Ahead by Less Than 1%
Pennsylvania has long been a key swing state and remains one of the most critical in 2024. In 2020, Biden narrowly won Pennsylvania, which proved critical to his victory. With 19 electoral votes at stake, both campaigns are expected to invest heavily to capture the state’s diverse electorate.
Georgia (16 electoral votes)
– 2020 margin: Biden +0.2%
– 2024 Poll: Trump <1% ahead
With 16 electoral votes, Georgia, once a reliable Republican state, has become a swing state in 2020. It is in the spotlight and is a big favorite for candidates during the campaign. Biden’s narrow victory in Georgia helped secure his victory, but Trump has his sights set on winning the state again in 2024.
North Carolina (16 electoral votes)
Margin 2020: Trump +1.3%
2024 surveys: not enough data
North Carolina has been a swing state for decades, and the race is expected to be tight again in 2024. Although Trump won the state by a narrow margin in 2020, recent polls suggest the race will be closely contested this time around. The state’s 16 electoral votes could be decisive.
Michigan (15 electoral votes)
2020 Margin: Biden +2.8%
2024 Poll: Harris Ahead by +2%
Michigan’s working-class voters played a central role in Biden’s 2020 victory, helping him swing the state back to Democrats after Trump’s 2016 victory. With 15 electoral votes, Michigan remains a key target for both campaigns, particularly in the industrial heartland.
Arizona (11 electoral votes)
2020 Margin: Biden +0.3%
2024 Polls: Trump ahead by less than 1%
Arizona’s changing demographics, including its growing Latino population, have made it a key swing state in recent elections. Biden’s narrow 2020 victory represented a significant shift, but Trump is determined to recapture Arizona’s 11 electoral votes in 2024.
Wisconsin (10 electoral votes)
2020 Margin: Biden +0.6%
2024 Poll: Harris Ahead by +1%
Wisconsin, another Rust Belt state, played a key role in Biden’s 2020 victory. The state’s 10 electoral votes are up for grabs again in 2024, with both parties trying to appeal to the state’s mix of urban and rural voters.
Nevada (6 electoral votes)
2020 Margin: Biden +2.4%
2024 surveys: not enough data
Nevada has consistently leaned Democratic in recent elections, but the margins have been tight. With six electoral votes, the state could play a crucial role in Harris’ victory, but the Trump campaign will work hard to reverse that trend.
Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District (1 electoral vote)
2020 Margin: Biden +6.5%
2024 surveys: not enough data
Although Nebraska is a solidly Republican state overall, it distributes electoral votes by congressional district, and the 2nd District, centered around Omaha, is undecided. Biden won that district in 2020, securing a single but potentially decisive electoral vote.
As campaigns heat up and Election Day approaches, these eight key states will be front and center for both parties. The strategies deployed, the issues promoted and the voter turnout efforts in these states will ultimately determine who wins the presidency in 2024.