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THE 2024 US presidential election between Kamala Harris And Donald Trump The contest is shaping up to be extremely tight, with the next occupant of the White House almost certain to be chosen by a few thousand undecided voters in key swing states.
Conventional wisdom states that there are seven very important key states: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina And Georgia — and that Harris can emerge victorious on November 5 if she wins at least the first three constituencies in the north.
But digging deeper, we can say that only three of the seven battlegrounds will actually decide the outcome of the election: Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia.
As Policy columnist Jonathan Martin supportsHarris, the vice president and Democratic presidential nominee, must win Pennsylvania and its 19 Electoral College votes if she is to make her way to 270, but, if she fails, she could still take the Oval Office if she can secure either North Carolina or Georgia (worth 16 Electoral College votes each) in her place — provided, of course, she still wins Michigan and Wisconsin (15 and 10, respectively).
“It comes down to seven key states, and you have to win four of them to win,” Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley told the magazine.
“Except if you win Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania, that will get you over the hump.”
The good news for Harris is that she is currently six points ahead of Trump in Pennsylvania in the latest Quinnipiac University poll, with 51 percent of the vote to 45 percent, and is leading four points, three points and one point in new surveys of The New York TimesFranklin & Marshall and The Washington Post respectively
Only the most recent Marist poll puts her tied with Trump, and none puts the Republican candidate ahead.
The Californian has certainly focused a lot of campaign energy on the Keystone State, unveiling her running mate Tim Walz in Philadelphia on August 6, touring western cities with him en route to the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, and then returning to Philadelphia to triumph over Trump on the NBC News debate stage on September 10, all will have captured the attention of local voters.
But Pennsylvania remains a notoriously difficult state for Democrats to win. Joe Biden He won it by just 80,000 votes four years ago, despite being from the industrial city of Scranton and having maintained close ties there throughout his career.
Experts advised Harris to choose a popular state governor Josh Shapiro as his running mate to help him close the deal before opting for Walz, and the former remains a powerful advocate for his campaign, speaking impressively on his behalf at the Minnesota governor’s introduction and again at the party convention last month.
If Trump ultimately wins, Harris still has a chance to clinch the presidency by winning either North Carolina or Georgia, two right-leaning states that Democrats have won only once each so far this century. Barack Obama by winning the Tar Heel State in 2008 and Biden the Peach State in 2020.
Harris has influential defenders like the governor Roy Cooper in North Carolina and Raphael Warnock And Stacey Abrams in Georgia, but even more crucial to his success will be winning the support of black men and more moderate conservatives unsettled by Trump.
The Vice President addressing black voters Speaking to the National Association of Black Journalists in Philadelphia on Thursday, she stressed that her economic opportunity plan encourages entrepreneurship and recognizes the need to avoid resting on one’s laurels by assuming the support of any one group. “Black men are like any other constituency,” she said. “You have to earn their vote.”
The Republican ticket is naturally making its own calculations along similar lines, and Pennsylvania and Georgia are the two main states in which the Trump team has invested its television advertising efforts, also injecting $17 million into North Carolina last week.
While Trump’s running mate JD Vancewho became famous as the author of Hillbilly Elegy (2016), has been touring the Southern states with energy, the candidate himself has not visited Georgia since August 3.
He has also created bad blood there by disputing the results of the 2020 election and publicly feuding with its officials like the governor. Brian Kemp and Secretary of State Brad Raffenspergerboth Republicans, not to mention the Fulton County district attorney Fani Williswho charged him and his allies with racketeering.
Trump’s support for controversy Mark Robinson in the North Carolina gubernatorial race, it could also cost him vital support in such a fragile state.
