This election is about the big and the small – as small as anything can be in the United States.
The big number first – our Sky News survey tracking tool now gives Kamala Harris a three-point lead over Donald Trump nationally.
This figure has increased and it appears that we can now see a rebound from last week’s debate, a rebound that is continuing.
And it could get even bigger: Keep in mind that our poll tracker includes polls taken before the debate.
As they are replaced in our tracker by new polls, his lead could improve.
Three points are important: To put this in context, a week after the Biden-Trump debate, widely considered a disaster for Biden, Trump was 3.3 points higher than Biden in the polls – a similar gap.
So why aren’t we talking about the fact that Trump is in such a difficult situation?
Part of this has to do with the rhetoric and dynamics around Biden at the time, particularly the idea that things would only get worse.
But Trump also has assets that Biden did not.
First of all, as we discussed earlier this weekHarris needs a big lead in national polls to secure a small number of key states.
Three points does not guarantee that.
And that’s the other point about the little one.
These are specific voters in specific locations, with different demographic and economic characteristics.
There are three geographic groups for swing states: the Southeast (Georgia and North Carolina), the Northeast (Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin), and the Southwest (Nevada and Arizona).
Ipsos, however, conducted a poll on the issues that voters in these three regions consider most important.
They are surprisingly similar, to the point of grouping them together.
Democracy means “threats to democracy and dangers of extreme polarization” and economics will have a different meaning in the rust belt Northeast than in the agricultural Southeast.
But there are clear priorities.
And these voters in key states have clear ideas about which candidate will be best able to address these issues.
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There are, however, some local variations.
The Southwest rates Trump even higher on the economy and immigration, and the Southeast thinks he would be better for democracy.
This is good news for Donald Trump.
In small towns where votes really count, he is seen as the best candidate on the issues that really matter.
But let’s end with another general conclusion: Harris’ net popularity continues to be much higher than Trump’s.
So, big or small: how they interact will determine the outcome of the election.
THE Data and Forensics Team is a multi-faceted unit dedicated to delivering transparent journalism from Sky News. We collect, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite imagery, social media and other open-source information. Through multimedia storytelling, we seek to better explain the world while showing how our journalism is made.