US elections 2024: how religious beliefs are changing in the United States and what impact it will have on the elections | US News

America is one of the most religious countries in the West. About two-thirds of its voters identify as Christian.

But things are changing and the nation has become less pious in recent decades.

So how will this affect the polls in the 2024 presidential elections?

How religious is America?

We may think that religious communities are strong in the United States, but in reality, religion is in decline.

In the 1990s, about 90% Americans identified as Christian. Today, more than a quarter say they have no religion.

This is important for the election because 70% of non-religious voters Americans are more likely to vote Democratic, according to a Pew Research survey from April this year. Alignment is even stronger for agnostics (78%) and atheists (84%).

But religion is not disappearing throughout America. In some states, like Oklahoma, Arkansas, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Alabama — essentially America’s Bible Belt — it’s actually becoming less and less important. stronger.

And American Christians, including Protestants and Catholics, are generally more likely to align with the Republican Party.

But race plays a significant role: 84% of black Protestants and 60% of Hispanic Catholics are more likely to vote for Democrats.

So even as they gain votes in some less religious states, they also lose voters in other, more conservative parts of the country.

This is a key consideration when looking at swing states.

Religion and swing states

In the 2020 US elections, seven US states were won by less than three percentage points – a very tight margin that could change this year..

These states were: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina and Nevada.

These were mostly won by Joe Biden in 2020 – with the exception of North Carolina, won by Donald Trump.

However, in the 2016 election, Mr. Trump won all of these states except Nevada.

So which direction are they likely to turn now?

If we look at the changes between the 2010 and 2020 census, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Georgia trend less religiously. While North Carolina, Nevada and Arizona have become more religious.

If we follow the general trend that less religious states are more likely to vote for Democrats and more religious states are more likely to vote for Republicans, this gives Democrats the advantage in four of the seven swing states – Republicans winning only three.

But as the split shows – not to mention the other factors at play – the battle is very close for the swing states, and therefore for the White House.

What about abortion?

In June 2022, the United States Supreme Court struck down the constitutional right to abortion, known as Roe v. Wade, leaving the decision up to each state.

As a result, 14 of the 50 U.S. states have banned abortion at all stages of pregnancy, with few exceptions. Four banned it after about six weeks of pregnancy.

This ban is based on the belief of some religious people that human life begins at conception and that unborn children have the right to life.

While the new ruling was celebrated by many Republicans and Christian conservatives who wanted to ban abortion nationwide, opinion polls show that the majority of Americans actually support abortion access.

Democratic candidate Kamala Harris has spoken out in favor of abortion rights across the country.

As Republican nominee Mr. Trump named three of the six U.S. Supreme Court justices who helped overturn Roe v Wade in 2022, he is softening his stance on harsh bans on abortion – maybe because of this poll.

In August, he told an NBC reporter that he thought Florida’s six-week abortion ban was “too short,” adding, “I believe in exceptions for the life of the mother, incest, rape.

Politics of Israel and Gaza

American evangelicals have strongly supported Israel’s response to the Hamas attack since October 7 of last year.

This is partly due to the Bible. In 2017, a LifeWay poll found that 80% of American evangelical Christians believe that the creation of Israel in 1948 was a fulfillment of biblical prophecy.

And this, despite the fact that the American public quite divided on Israel’s conduct in the war.

And in Michigan, a swing state with a large Arab-American population, some American Muslims are particularly disappointed with the current administration’s stance on the war.

Both Ms. Harris and Mr. Trump have affirmed their continued support for Israel in this war. Ms Harris promised she would push for a ceasefire deal, while Mr Trump said he had urged Benjamin Netanyahu to “stop the killing”, in his words.

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Is the religion of the candidate important?

Ms. Harris and Mr. Trump identify as religious.

Ms. Harris is a Baptist from a religiously diverse family. Her father is a Baptist Christian of Jamaican origin, her mother a Hindu of Indian origin and her husband is Jewish.

Mr. Trump, by contrast, was confirmed in a Presbyterian church as a child, although in 2020 he told the Religious News Service that he now considers himself a nondenominational Christian.

His attachment to the evangelical vote perhaps explains why he distanced himself from his Calvinist upbringing.

Nearly all American adults say they want a president who leads a moral and ethical life, and nearly half say it is important that the president have strong religious beliefs, a study finds. Pew Research Survey 2024.

It is therefore clear that morality and ethics – even religion – are considered strict requirements for US presidential candidates.

Yet despite calling himself a Christian, recent polls show that a majority of Americans think Mr. Trump is not very — or at all — religious.

But this – and its recent criminal conviction for discreet money payments to a porn actress — does not appear to have deterred more conservative, religious Americans from supporting him.